NZD\/USD, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc dalgal\u0131 i\u015flemlerde hafif geriledi. Asya ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde zirve yapt\u0131, seans ortas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5935\u2019e indi ve ard\u0131ndan New York kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011fru toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da odak, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak RBNZ\u2019nin (Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131) 2. \u00e7eyrek enflasyon beklentileri anketine \u00e7evrildi. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte iki y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %2,37, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %2,59 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da 1. \u00e7eyrek T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketim sepetindeki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren ana enflasyon verisi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 geldi. Bu oran, RBNZ\u2019nin %1\u2013%3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. Ayr\u0131ca per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin BusinessNZ \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc anket verisi) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji dahil genel enflasyon) nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; piyasa beklentisi %3,7 idi. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7, daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi g\u00f6steren enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 oldu. Enerji maliyetleri y\u0131ll\u0131k %17,9 artt\u0131; bu 2022\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
Be\u015f dakikal\u0131k grafikte parite 0,5950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan 0,5967\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Stokastik RSI (fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m seviyelerini \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 17 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; 0,5967 seviyesi k\u0131sa vadeli diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte NZD\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5951 seviyesindeydi; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 0,5881 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,5866 \u00fczerinde. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI 76 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; 0,5881 ve 0,5866 seviyeleri destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak not edildi.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019de karars\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. ABD\u2019de man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; bu, 2024\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015foku (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani s\u0131\u00e7rama) bu bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, uzun vadeli tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak riskli hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan RBNZ enflasyon beklentileri anketi parite i\u00e7in kritik bir kontrol noktas\u0131. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da 2024\u2019\u00fcn 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00dcFE %4,0 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyedeydi; mevcut %3,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etse de h\u00e2l\u00e2 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir sonu\u00e7, RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu (faiz indirimi yerine s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme e\u011filimi) korumas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da Kiwi dolar\u0131na (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde riskin ana kayna\u011f\u0131 jeopolitik: ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak Trump-Xi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi. VIX Endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 19,5\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde. Bu ortamda, y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden sonu\u00e7 \u00fczerine pozisyon almak i\u00e7in opsiyon almak (\u00f6r. straddle\/strangle) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir:
\n– Straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklenir, y\u00f6n belirsizdir.
\n– Strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; daha ucuz olabilir, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gerekir.<\/p>\n
Taktik a\u00e7\u0131dan 0,5967 e\u015fik seviyesinin (pivot: k\u0131sa vadede y\u00f6n tayininde izlenen ana seviye) a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olumsuzla\u015f\u0131rsa, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 0,5881\u2019in alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 NZD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mda risk \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r\u201d; en fazla opsiyon primi (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) kadar kay\u0131p olur.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan paritenin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k opsiyon primi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (pahal\u0131 primden faydalanma) cazip k\u0131labilir. Iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede, bant i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 hedefleyen; hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m taraf\u0131nda \u201czarar durdurucu\u201d niteli\u011finde iki spread kurulan strateji) ile, parite se\u00e7ilen iki seviye aras\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir. Bu, belirsizlik azald\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin zamanla erimesinden (time decay: zaman ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e opsiyon de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok ba\u015fl\u0131k: NZD\/USD dalgaland\u0131; g\u00f6zler RBNZ beklenti anketinde. ABD T\u00dcFE %3,8, enerji %17,9. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleri VIX\u2019i y\u00fckseltti. 0,5967 diren\u00e7, 0,5881-0,5866 destek; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46555"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46555\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}