DBS k\u0131demli ekonomisti Ma Tieying, 2026 i\u00e7in GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) tahminini %9,4\u2019e, T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi: enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %1,9\u2019a y\u00fckselttikten sonra Tayvan\u2019\u0131n politika faizi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc revize etti. Ma, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 12,5 baz puanl\u0131k (faiz oran\u0131nda 0,125 y\u00fczde puan) tek bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Bu da politika iskonto oran\u0131n\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) %2,00\u2019den %2,125\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karacak.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (genel enflasyon) May\u0131s\u2019tan itibaren %2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyona (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) yans\u0131man\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda %2,5\u2019e yakla\u015fabilir. Boru hatt\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00fcretim ve tedarik zincirinde biriken maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gelecekte fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) da ikinci yar\u0131da artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131, y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 ikinci tur enflasyon risklerini (enerji zamlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretler ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 gibi kalemlere yay\u0131l\u0131p kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) izliyor. Haberde, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 12,5 baz puanl\u0131k olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde; bu hamle politika faizini %2,125\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacak. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon tahminlerinin belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 pas ge\u00e7mesi olas\u0131; bu da bu de\u011fi\u015fime g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
%9,4\u2019l\u00fck GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131; Nisan\u2019da ihracat sipari\u015fleri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %22 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131, \u00f6nde gelen d\u00f6k\u00fcmhanelerimizin (fason \u00e7ip \u00fcreticileri) \u00fcretti\u011fi ileri seviye yapay zek\u00e2 \u00e7iplerine y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel talebin \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Ekonominin, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon art\u0131k uzak bir risk de\u011fil; ge\u00e7en haftaki veriler Nisan T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin \u015fimdiden %2,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. K\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, bunun man\u015fet enflasyonu y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda %2,5\u2019e itmesi bekleniyor. Bu veriler, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te enflasyon %1,7\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizleri sabit tutabildi\u011fi d\u00f6nemden farkl\u0131. As\u0131l endi\u015fe, y\u00fcksek enerji ve ithalat maliyetlerinin \u00fccretlere ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131yla (ikinci tur etkiler) enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bu kez erken ad\u0131m atmaya daha istekli oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckselmesine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, beklenen art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesinde Tayvan Dolar\u0131 faiz swaplar\u0131nda (taraflar\u0131n sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6deyen tarafta yer almak anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Piyasa, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n) patikas\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tayvan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kap\u0131da: DBS, 2026 GSYH\u2019yi %9,4\u2019e, T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %1,9\u2019a \u00e7ekti; 3\u00c7\u2019de 12,5 bp art\u0131\u015fla politika faizi %2,125. Haziran pas ge\u00e7ilebilir, enflasyon t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46552\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}