ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD enflasyon verisinin beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 98,30\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. **Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI)** Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8 oldu (beklenti yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,7). T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,6 artt\u0131. **\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k %0,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD **Hazine tahvili getirileri** (faiz oran\u0131) y\u00fckseldi. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %1,10 art\u0131\u015fla %4,46\u2019ya, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %0,80 art\u0131\u015fla %5,03\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. **EUR\/USD** 1,1740\u2019a, **GBP\/USD** 1,3540 yak\u0131nlar\u0131na geriledi. **USD\/JPY** 157,60\u2019a do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken **AUD\/USD** 0,7240\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
WTI, \u0130ran ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gerginlikler nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 102,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla 4.700 dolara do\u011fru geriledi.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler \u015f\u00f6yle: 13 May\u0131s \u00c7ar\u015famba: Avustralya 1\u00c7 **\u00dccret Fiyat Endeksi** (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er), Yeni Zelanda 2\u00c7 **RBNZ enflasyon beklentileri** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n anketi), Fransa Nisan T\u00dcFE (AB standard\u0131), Euro B\u00f6lgesi 1\u00c7 istihdam ve GSYH (\u00f6nc\u00fc), Euro B\u00f6lgesi Mart sanayi \u00fcretimi, ABD Nisan **\u00dcFE (PPI)** ve \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE (\u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131; maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir). 14 May\u0131s Per\u015fembe: Avustralya enflasyon beklentileri, \u0130ngiltere GSYH ve \u00fcretim verileri, Almanya Nisan **HICP** (AB uyumlu enflasyon), ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, Yeni Zelanda Nisan **PMI** (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; b\u00fcy\u00fcme\/daralma sinyali). 15 May\u0131s Cuma: Fransa T\u00dcFE, ABD **NY Empire State** endeksi (New York b\u00f6lgesi imalat e\u011filimi), ABD sanayi \u00fcretimi.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir enflasyon temas\u0131 yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. May\u0131s 2025\u2019te %3,8\u2019lik T\u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni yukar\u0131 itmi\u015fti. Nisan 2026\u2019n\u0131n son verisi man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,4\u2019e indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi, Fed\u2019in **\u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d** yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (faizlerin h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi beklentisi) destekliyor. \u0130lk \u015fok ge\u00e7se de, enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k s\u00fcrecek ve bu oynakl\u0131k dolar \u00fczerindeki **k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon** fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 (belirli vadede al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin primi) etkilemeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %4,46\u2019ya t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eu anda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,35 seviyesinde; bu da piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in biraz daha yumu\u015fak olabilece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak getirilerde taban\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda **faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri** (gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015fleminde, getirilerde yava\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimali ile Fed\u2019den **\u015fahin** (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f yanl\u0131s\u0131) mesajlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek sert s\u0131\u00e7rama riskini birlikte dengeleyen bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle EUR\/USD 1,1740\u2019a gerilemi\u015fti; bug\u00fcn 1,1850 civar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek. Bunun arkas\u0131nda **ECB** (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi var. Benzer \u015fekilde GBP\/USD 1,3540 dip seviyesinden 1,3620 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131. 2026 1\u00c7 GSYH verileri \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin resesyondan (ekonomik daralma) ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterince, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fct\u00e7e kayg\u0131lar\u0131 da hafifledi. Bu paritelerde **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (dayanak varl\u0131ktan t\u00fcreyen opsiyon\/vadeli i\u015flem gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) stratejileri art\u0131k dolar\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na belirleyici olmas\u0131na daha az, Avrupa ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019den gelecek yerel verilere daha \u00e7ok hassasiyet g\u00f6stermeli.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin May\u0131s 2025\u2019te 157,60\u2019a t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 bir uyar\u0131yd\u0131; bug\u00fcn parite 160,00 seviyesini test ediyor. Japon yetkililerin **m\u00fcdahale** (kur piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m ile etki etme) ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu da gergin bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ani ve sert yen de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma i\u00e7in **put opsiyonu** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alabilir veya **opsiyon kolyesi\/collar** (risk s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 anda put al\u0131p call satmak gibi strateji) ile korunma yapabilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 102 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik kayg\u0131larla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Sonras\u0131nda fiyatlar 88 dolar b\u00f6lgesine gev\u015fedi; s\u00f6z konusu gerginliklerin azalmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama endi\u015fesi talebi bask\u0131lad\u0131. Son **EIA** (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporu da bu e\u011filimi destekledi: 2,5 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu, ham petrolde **call opsiyonu primi**nin (al\u0131m opsiyonu maliyeti) \u015fu an y\u00fcksek fiyatlan\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de beklentiyi a\u015fan T\u00dcFE, DXY\u2019yi 98,30\u2019a, tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti: EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD geriledi, USD\/JPY t\u0131rmand\u0131. Petrol 102$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde, alt\u0131n zay\u0131f. Piyasada \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}