Sterlin, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifa etmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131yla de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu durum, \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Bahis piyasalar\u0131, Starmer\u2019\u0131n bu y\u0131l g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ING, EUR\/GBP paritesinde siyasi risk primi olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. (Risk primi: Belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n talep etti\u011fi ek getiri.) ING\u2019nin modeline g\u00f6re bu, k\u0131sa vadede yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3\u2019l\u00fck bir \u201cpahal\u0131\u201d fiyatlamaya (k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeye) i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar Starmer\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 yerine ge\u00e7ecek isimleri tartarken sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artabilir. Ayr\u0131ca yeni bir liderli\u011fin mali kurallara (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini\/bor\u00e7lanma s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 gibi kamu maliyesini k\u0131s\u0131tlayan \u00e7er\u00e7eve) nas\u0131l yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in parlamentoda bir koltuk arayabilece\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan da geriledi. Haberlerde bu hamle, mali kuraldan vazge\u00e7ilmesi endi\u015feleri ve bunun \u0130ngiltere kamu maliyesine g\u00fcven \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkisiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; 2025\u2019te ilk i\u015faret etti\u011fimiz siyasi risk yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kur dalgalanmas\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %6,2 ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu, piyasalar\u0131n ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k liderli\u011finin yeniden sorgulanmas\u0131yla sert bir hareket ihtimaline haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l not etti\u011fimiz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 siyasi risk primi art\u0131k belirgin \u015fekilde geni\u015fledi; h\u00fck\u00fcmet istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ana tema haline geldi. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sterlinde ek zay\u0131flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin GBP\/USD\u2019de put opsiyonu (put: Kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) kullanmak, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 riskten korunma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir. Liderlik ve maliye politikas\u0131 netle\u015fene kadar sterlin i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP paritesi, t\u0131pk\u0131 2025\u2019te bu liderlik endi\u015feleri ilk ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi kritik odakta. Parite 0,8800 seviyesini test ediyor; resmi bir liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. EUR\/GBP\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonu (call: Kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (defined-risk: en fazla \u00f6denen prim kadar kay\u0131p) sterlinin g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Adaylar\u0131n mali kurallara yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz; bu ba\u015fl\u0131k ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde piyasalar\u0131 sarsm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ngiltere 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili (gilt: \u0130ngiliz Hazine tahvili) getirileri son bir haftada 15 baz puan y\u00fckseldi. (Baz puan: %0,01.) Bu hareket, mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fin ilk sorguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz tahvil piyasas\u0131 tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu da bor\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n, mali disiplinden uzakla\u015fma alg\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7ok hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u201cya olur ya olmaz\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fcnde iki u\u00e7lu risk (binary risk: ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse b\u00fcy\u00fck etki, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki) yaratmas\u0131 nedeniyle oynakl\u0131k almak (buying volatility: kurun sert hareket etmesine oynayan opsiyon stratejileri) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n korumas\u0131n\u0131n maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in sterlin put opsiyonu spread\u2019lerine (spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte almak-satmak) bakabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, belirsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla y\u00fckselen opsiyon prim maliyetini daha y\u00f6netilebilir k\u0131larken sterlindeki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin \u00e7alkalan\u0131yor: Starmer\u2019a istifa bask\u0131s\u0131 artarken siyasi belirsizlik b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Bahisler ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ING risk primi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Oynakl\u0131k %9,5. EUR\/GBP 0,8800 testte; mali kurallar endi\u015fesi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46549"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46549\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}