TD Securities\u2019in d\u00f6viz (FX) stratejistleri, euronun \u00e7apraz kurlarda (iki para biriminin, ABD dolar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmadan birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. \u00d6zellikle sterlin ve Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda. Bunu, son se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ngiltere\u2019de artan siyasi belirsizli\u011fe ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (faizleri ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen kurumlar) farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesine ba\u011fl\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi geli\u015fmeler sterlini bask\u0131larsa, euroyu sterline g\u00f6re daha avantajl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Jeopolitik (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 siyasi gerilim) ko\u015fullar\u0131n kilitli kalmas\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131 farklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde de euronun Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
2026\u2019da Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) en az bir kez faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) ise bu y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Ana senaryolar\u0131, petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 90 dolar civar\u0131na yerle\u015fmesi. Ayr\u0131ca euro, petrol ithalat\u0131na (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan petrol alma) ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalsa da, mevcut seviyelerden y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e gerekebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma (faiz ve politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) nedeniyle, euroyu sterlin ve Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi tablo ve farkl\u0131 para politikalar\u0131, \u00e7apraz d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda net f\u0131rsatlar olu\u015fturuyor. Bu unsurlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc euro y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131nabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere siyasetinden gelen belirsizlik, 2024 genel se\u00e7imlerinden bu yana s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve sterlini bask\u0131lamaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Sterlin i\u00e7eren paritelerde 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %11\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin k\u0131l pay\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu ve b\u00fct\u00e7e\/harcama planlar\u0131 nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n tedirgin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortam, EUR\/GBP\u2019de \u201cuzun pozisyonu\u201d (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euroyu, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark nedeniyle Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da daha iyi konumda g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in yay\u0131mlanan h\u0131zl\u0131 tahmin, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) %2,8\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da ECB\u2019nin sonbahara do\u011fru faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini y\u00fckseltiyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoC\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel referans petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil fiyat\u0131 92 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korusa da, Kanada ekonomisi zay\u0131flama sinyalleri veriyor. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la, ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verisi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131la \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %0,5 gibi zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etti. Bu yumu\u015fak i\u00e7 veriler, BoC\u2019ye bekle-g\u00f6r i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e veriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcyen politika fark\u0131, EUR\/CAD i\u00e7in destekleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 ay vadeli (belli bir tarihte sona eren) EUR\/GBP ve EUR\/CAD \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, eurodaki beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar ve i\u015flemdeki riski daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada yeni tema: Euro \u00e7aprazlarda g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. TD Securities, siyasi belirsizlikle bask\u0131lanan sterlin ve sabit kalmas\u0131 beklenen BoC kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda EUR\/GBP ve EUR\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f, 1\u20133 ay call \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}