ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) enflasyonu nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) marttaki %3,3\u2019ten %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve %3,7 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE (bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) %0,6 artt\u0131; marttaki %0,9\u2019un ard\u0131ndan beklentiyle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
G\u0131da ve enerjiyi hari\u00e7 tutan \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (daha oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak temel fiyat e\u011filimi) ayl\u0131k %0,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 artt\u0131. BLS (ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu) enerji endeksinin nisanda %3,8 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve genel endeksteki ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %40\u2019tan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n enerjiden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bar\u0131nma endeksi (kira ve konutla ilgili maliyetler) %0,6, g\u0131da %0,5 y\u00fckseldi. Evde t\u00fcketilen g\u0131da %0,7 artarken, d\u0131\u015far\u0131da t\u00fcketilen g\u0131da %0,2 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Veri sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,4 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 98,30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Veri \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar man\u015fet (genel) T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %3,7, ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %0,6; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019yi ise ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 bekliyordu.<\/p>\n
28 \u015eubat\u2019tan nisan sonuna kadar WTI (West Texas Intermediate, ABD referans ham petrol\u00fc) %50\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldi; may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. CME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flemlerden faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131l sonuna kadar politika faizinin %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %73, 25 baz puan (bps, y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri) art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD i\u00e7in belirtilen seviyeler 1,1800\u20131,1820, 1,1900\u20131,1910 ve 1,2000 diren\u00e7; 1,1730\u20131,1680, ard\u0131ndan 1,1660 ve 1,1560 destek olarak payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan enflasyon verisi, man\u015fet rakam\u0131n beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek %3,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla endi\u015feleri do\u011frulad\u0131. As\u0131l dikkat \u00e7eken, enerji ve g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin de tahminleri a\u015fmas\u0131; bu da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f bir alana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politikas\u0131na dair g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veriye g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi ihtimali belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flad\u0131; CME FedWatch art\u0131k aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 g\u00f6steriyor. Benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: enerji kaynakl\u0131 ilk \u015fok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede Fed\u2019i h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6nemine itmi\u015fti. Piyasada \u201cfaizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131\u201d beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; buna g\u00f6re 2026 sonu ve 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (faiz beklentisine g\u00f6re fiyatlanan kontratlar) sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim ve kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen (kal\u0131c\u0131) enflasyon birle\u015fimi, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rabilir. VIX (S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, beklenen hisse piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Oynakl\u0131kta pozisyon almak (VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri veya S&P 500 \u00fczerinde opsiyon stratejileriyle) beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi) dolar\u0131 destekliyor; Dolar Endeksi 98,30\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ABD enflasyonunu beslemeye devam ettik\u00e7e ve Fed\u2019i temkinli tuttuk\u00e7a, dolar\u0131n euro gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019de zay\u0131flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndemde kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Son belirleyici petrol fiyat\u0131. West Texas Intermediate ham petrol, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri 110 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda deniz trafi\u011fine dair riskler en b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015fl\u0131k; t\u0131rmanma haberleri enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilir. Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) pozisyonlar\u0131, b\u00f6lgeden gelen g\u00fcnl\u00fck haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in dikkatle y\u00f6netilmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: ABD nisan T\u00dcFE %3,8\u2019le beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n lokomotifi enerji ve bar\u0131nma. Dolar endeksi y\u00fckseldi; Fed indirimi zay\u0131flad\u0131, art\u0131\u015f riski %20. EUR\/USD bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}