ABD dolar\u0131, y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 158,00 seviyesine do\u011fru itti. Bu seviye, 6 May\u0131s\u2019ta Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kur m\u00fcdahalesi (merkez bankas\u0131\/hazine taraf\u0131ndan piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kura etki etme) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Japonya ve ABD yetkilileri, istenmeyen ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur dalgalanmas\u0131na (kurun k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131 koordine ettiklerini s\u00f6yledi. Bu, dalgalanma s\u00fcrerse m\u00fcdahalenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bas\u0131ndaki haberlere g\u00f6re Japonya, yeni (JPY) desteklemek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcad\u0131. Yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an etkenler de\u011fi\u015fmezse ek ad\u0131mlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini (ithalat maliyetleri art\u0131nca \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaretten ald\u0131\u011f\u0131\/alaca\u011f\u0131 faydan\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131) daha da bozdu. Ayr\u0131ca faiz farklar\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) yen aleyhine geni\u015fledi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasalar di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden fiyatlara yans\u0131t\u0131yor).<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY yeniden 158,00 seviyesine dayan\u0131rken, uzun pozisyonlarda (kurun y\u00fckselece\u011fine oynayan i\u015flem) \u00e7ok dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. Bu seviye Japon yetkililer i\u00e7in net bir e\u015fik haline geldi ve yeni, ani bir m\u00fcdahaleyle yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi riski y\u00fckseldi. Zay\u0131f yen y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlar, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar kes (stop-loss: fiyat aleyhe giderse kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in otomatik kapan\u0131\u015f seviyesi) ile y\u00f6netilmeli.<\/p>\n
Yen \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131lar (ekonomik nedenler) ortadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in parite tekrar tekrar yukar\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (ABD tipi ham petrol fiyat\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve ABD-Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvillerinin getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark) 350 baz puan\u0131n (0,01 puan; 350 baz puan = 3,50 puan) \u00fczerinde geni\u015f seyretmesi, kurda zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, ekonomik ger\u00e7eklerle resmi m\u00fcdahale tehdidini kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getiriyor.<\/p>\n
2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahalelerde Japonya\u2019n\u0131n para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu hamle, USD\/JPY\u2019nin saatler i\u00e7inde 160 \u00fczerinden 155 alt\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 zor durumda b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeni bir m\u00fcdahalenin de benzer \u015fekilde h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert olmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n koordinasyon mesajlar\u0131, bu tehdidi daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu, yaln\u0131zca Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na hareket etmesi de\u011fil; ABD\u2019nin de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ad\u0131mlara onay verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu siyasi destek, yetkililerin kur \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket ederse yeniden devreye girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan \u00fcr\u00fcnler; \u00f6r. opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen dalgalanman\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) \u00f6zellikle k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilir. JPY al\u0131m \/ USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak (yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine veya dolara kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan opsiyon), m\u00fcdahaleye do\u011frudan bahis ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: zarar\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) olarak kullan\u0131labilir. 159,00 \u00fczerindeki \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) USD al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019leri satmak da (spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte al\u0131p satma) diren\u00e7 beklentisiyle prim geliri (premium: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) toplamak i\u00e7in se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol rallisi dolar endeksini destekledi, USD\/JPY yeniden 158\u2019e dayand\u0131. Tokyo-ABD koordinasyonu \u201cm\u00fcdahale masada\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor. 10 trilyon yenlik \u00f6nceki hamle hat\u0131rda: uzunlar temkin, stop-loss \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46542"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46542\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}