ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 18 Nisan itibar\u0131yla 33 bin ki\u015fiye geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde 39,25 bin seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Bu, \u00f6nceki 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamaya g\u00f6re 6,25 bin ki\u015filik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Son veri, 18 Nisan\u2019a kadar olan en g\u00fcncel d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemi kaps\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ADP\u2019nin 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n Nisan 2025\u2019te 33 bine d\u00fc\u015fmesi, ekonomide belirgin bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n erken i\u015faretiydi. Bu e\u011filim y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da s\u00fcrd\u00fc ve istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bulma ve i\u015fe al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131) bu kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %2,3\u2019e gerilemesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 so\u011fuma, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u015eu ana kadar her biri 0,25 puanl\u0131k (25 baz puan) \u00fc\u00e7 indirim g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve politika faizi zirvesinden toplam 75 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasa beklentisi (genel piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131), 2026 sonuna kadar en az iki indirim daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, piyasada \u015fu an fiyatlanandan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131k anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Bu kapsamda SOFR veya Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. SOFR, ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faiz \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fcd\u00fcr; Fed Funds ise Fed\u2019in hedefledi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli faize ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6stergedir. Bu strateji, beklenenden zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisinin Fed\u2019i daha erken ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ad\u0131m atmaya itmesi halinde de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ortam\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri destekler. Nasdaq 100 gibi teknoloji ve t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcama (zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim) endekslerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Ancak i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle, yava\u015flaman\u0131n daha sert daralmaya d\u00f6nmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cVIX\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma (hedge; riski dengeleme) tercih edilebilir. VIX, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) beklentisini g\u00f6steren endekstir; \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) opsiyonlar ise genellikle daha ucuz olup, yaln\u0131zca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketlerde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerinde de f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131r. Fed faiz indirirken, faizini sabit tutan merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 beklenebilir. Opsiyonlarla (alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne pozisyon almak, \u00f6zellikle Japon yeni ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ADP 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 33 bine gerilemesi, ABD\u2019de istihdamda so\u011fuman\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor: enflasyon gev\u015feyebilir, Fed\u2019in indirimleri erkene \u00e7ekebilir; tahvil, Nasdaq ve dolar opsiyonlar\u0131nda f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46539\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}