Sterlin, g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmesinin ard\u0131ndan, Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bahis piyasalar\u0131, Starmer\u2019\u0131n bu y\u0131l g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131lma ihtimalini y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131yla birlikte EUR\/GBP\u2019de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir **siyasi risk primi** olu\u015ftu. (Siyasi risk primi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle kurda veya varl\u0131k fiyat\u0131nda \u201cek getiri\/ek maliyet\u201d talep etmesidir.) Bir model tahmini, bunun k\u0131sa vadede yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3\u2019l\u00fck bir \u201cpahal\u0131 fiyatlama\u201dya i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkat, olas\u0131 liderlik haleflerine kay\u0131yor; bu da sterlin \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Son haberlerde Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n, liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in parlamentoda koltuk arayabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, **mali kural\u0131n** (devletin bor\u00e7lanma ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131r koyan \u00e7er\u00e7eve) terk edilmesine y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nerilerle ilgili endi\u015feler nedeniyle de bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu durum, mali politikan\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k kamu maliyesinin i\u015fleyi\u015fi hakk\u0131nda soru i\u015faretleri do\u011furdu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki liderlik krizinde sterlinde siyasi risk priminin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu kayg\u0131lar sonradan do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f, liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimi sterlini zay\u0131f b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi sterlin hem euro hem dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrederken, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l mali kurallar\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesine dair uyar\u0131lar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 yeni y\u00f6netim alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ba\u015fbakan Burnham g\u00f6reve yerle\u015firken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k **gilt** (\u0130ngiltere Hazine tahvili) faizleri y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti ve %4,5 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu, liderlik m\u00fccadelesi sertle\u015fmeden \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131ndaki seviyelere g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015f. Bu, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k kamu maliyesine ili\u015fkin ek belirsizlik i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir \u201cek getiri\u201d talep etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo alt\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sterlinde zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine, \u00f6zellikle dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir. GBP\/USD kurunun 1,22 \u00fczerindeki hareketini kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, **put opsiyonu** almak (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, endi\u015feler artarsa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Sterlin paritelerinde **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k** da (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi; bu, s\u00fcren siyasi belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in 3 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,2; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l daha sakin d\u00f6nemlerde %6,5 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu ortamda, sterlindeki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayanarak, **paradan uzak al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak** (mevcut fiyattan epey yukar\u0131 seviyelerdeki call opsiyonu satarak prim geliri elde etmek) \u201cprim toplama\u201d a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\u2019de siyasi f\u0131rt\u0131na yeniden esiyor: Starmer\u2019a istifa bask\u0131s\u0131 kurda risk primini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Mali kural endi\u015fesi ve %4,5 gilt getirisi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46538\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}