Joachim Nagel, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi ve Deutsche Bundesbank Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada temel senaryoda yak\u0131n vadede iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Nagel, enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201ckontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131\u201d (piyasalar\u0131n gelecekte enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde inanmas\u0131) h\u00e2linde ECB\u2019nin harekete ge\u00e7ece\u011fini, haziran kararlar\u0131n\u0131n ise verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Euro, a\u00e7\u0131klamalara s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi. EUR\/USD paritesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1745 seviyesinde %0,33 geriledi; bu hareket daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
Frankfurt merkezli Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirler ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (ekonomideki para ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6neten politika) y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcr. Bankan\u0131n temel hedefi fiyat istikrar\u0131d\u0131r; enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lan\u0131r. Faiz kararlar\u0131 Euro\u2019nun de\u011ferini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6netim Konseyi, y\u0131lda sekiz kez yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131larda politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131r. Konsey, Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerinin merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 ile ECB\u2019nin alt\u0131 daimi \u00fcyesinden olu\u015fur; buna ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde da dahildir.<\/p>\n
Parasal geni\u015fleme (QE), ECB\u2019nin piyasaya Euro s\u00fcrerek devlet veya \u015firket tahvili gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131d\u0131r. Tahvil, devletin veya \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7lanmak i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymettir. Bu t\u00fcr al\u0131mlar, piyasada para miktar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Euro\u2019yu zay\u0131flatabilir. ECB, QE\u2019yi 2009\u201311 d\u00f6neminde, 2015\u2019te ve Covid salg\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT), parasal geni\u015flemenin tersidir ve toparlanma g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken ve enflasyon y\u00fckselirken uygulan\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7; yeni tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurmay\u0131 ve vadesi dolan tahvillerden gelen paray\u0131 yeniden tahvile yat\u0131rmay\u0131 sonland\u0131rmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Bu ad\u0131mlar, Euro\u2019yu destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Joachim Nagel\u2019in yakla\u015fan iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi, artan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na do\u011frudan bir yan\u0131t. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminine g\u00f6re HICP enflasyonu %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek 2025 sonundaki %2,4 seviyesinden belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131. HICP, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde kullan\u0131lan \u201cuyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu\u201d g\u00f6stergesidir; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ntemle hesaplan\u0131r. Bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tona (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlara daha s\u0131cak bakan yakla\u015f\u0131m) ra\u011fmen Euro\u2019nun 1,1745\u2019e gerilemesi, piyasan\u0131n \u015fu an daha \u00e7ok ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD, Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 250 bin artt\u0131. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir veridir. Bu da Fed\u2019in ECB\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha agresif faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u0130ki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (faiz fark\u0131\/diferansiyel), \u015fu anda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ana belirleyici.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev, de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerdir) ECB s\u00f6ylemi ile piyasa tepkisi aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 diplerinden %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Straddle veya strangle almak, yani ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu ile sert fiyat hareketlerine y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6nemsemeden pozisyon almak, dalga boyunun artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle kullan\u0131labilecek bir y\u00f6ntem.<\/p>\n
2022\u20132023 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ECB\u2019nin enflasyonda \u201cge\u00e7 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan dersler de hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde ilk \u015fahin mesajlar ku\u015fkuyla kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f, ECB kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla bunu kan\u0131tlayana kadar Euro geride kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut fiyat hareketi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Euro\u2019yu tam olarak fiyatlamadan \u00f6nce Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n Nagel\u2019le ayn\u0131 sertlikte mesaj vermesini bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu, \u015fu a\u015famada Euro\u2019da y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu veya call spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonu ile kurulan, k\u00e2r-zarar s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 olan strateji) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 erken k\u0131labilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m, faiz vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda (faiz beklentilerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6zellikle Euribor kontratlar\u0131nda bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemek olabilir. Euribor, Euro B\u00f6lgesi bankalar\u0131n\u0131n birbirine bor\u00e7 verirken kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 referans faizdir; bu kontratlarda belirgin bir yeniden fiyatlama, piyasan\u0131n ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu ciddiye almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilk somut i\u015fareti olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019den \u015fahin sinyal: Nagel, temel senaryoda yak\u0131nda iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; haziran kararlar\u0131 veriye ba\u011fl\u0131. Euro s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi; Fed\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam\u0131 faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}