ABD hisseleri yeniden y\u00fckseldi; S&P 500 %0,19, NASDAQ %0,10 artt\u0131 ve ikisi de yeni rekor kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Philadelphia yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) endeksi %2,59 y\u00fckseldi; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (YTD) kazanc\u0131 %70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enerji hisseleri de y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa geneli daha zay\u0131ft\u0131: S&P 500\u2019de hisselerin \u00e7o\u011fu d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u201cMuhte\u015fem 7\u2019li\u201d (Mag-7: en b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 7 hisse) %0,26 geriledi. Avrupa\u2019da Stoxx 600 %0,11, FTSE 100 %0,36 ve DAX %0,05 y\u00fckseldi. Fransa\u2019da CAC 40 ise l\u00fcks perakende \u015firketlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin etkisiyle %0,69 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Asya\u2019da G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI, yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) sekt\u00f6r k\u00e2rlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilen \u201culusal temett\u00fc\u201d \u00f6nerisine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %5,1\u2019e varan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha sonra, yeni bir \u201cola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc kurumlar vergisi\u201d yerine \u201cbeklenenden y\u00fcksek vergi geliri\u201d kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 fikri oldu\u011fu netle\u015fince kay\u0131p %2,90\u2019a kadar toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Samsung %3,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. NASDAQ vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,34 gerileyerek S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (%0,14 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) gerisinde kald\u0131. EURO STOXX 50 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,61 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. S&P\/ASX 200 %0,24, CSI %0,31 ve \u015eanghay Bile\u015fik %0,40 gerilerken; Nikkei %0,62 ve Hang Seng %0,30 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 yeni rekorlar yapsa da g\u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7ip ve enerji hisselerinde toplan\u0131yor. Bu \u201cdar liderlik\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fin az say\u0131da hisseden gelmesi), ralliyi k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00e7ip sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde k\u00e2r\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) koruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %70 y\u00fckselen ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak gibi.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji hisselerindeki y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlemeler endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131. Baz\u0131 \u00f6nde gelen AI \u00e7ip \u00fcreticileri \u201cileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck F\/K\u201d (forward price-to-earnings: gelecek 12 ay k\u00e2r tahminine g\u00f6re fiyat\/kazan\u00e7) oran\u0131nda 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019te AI kaynakl\u0131 piyasada benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: S&P 500 \u201cy\u00fckselen-d\u00fc\u015fen hisseler\u201d g\u00f6stergesi (Advance-Decline: ka\u00e7 hisse y\u00fckseliyor, ka\u00e7 hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor) endeksin yeni zirvelerini teyit edememi\u015f, bu da \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ileride d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali vermi\u015fti. Endeks ile onu olu\u015fturan hisseler aras\u0131ndaki bu uyumsuzluk, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den AI k\u00e2rlar\u0131ndan \u201culusal temett\u00fc\u201d ihtimaline dair haber, teknoloji alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve NASDAQ vadeli i\u015flemlerinin geride kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu, sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in yeni bir siyasi riskin hen\u00fcz fiyatlara tam yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u201c\u00c7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\u201d (pairs trade: biri sat\u0131l\u0131rken di\u011feri al\u0131n\u0131r), yani NASDAQ 100\u2019de k\u0131sa (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama) pozisyon al\u0131p daha \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f S&P 500\u2019de uzun (long: y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynama) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak, bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 denge sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasada rehavet y\u00fcksek. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) son d\u00f6nemde 13\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti; bu seviye yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck risk alg\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu durum, beklenmedik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 ucuz koruma alma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir. VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak veya ana endekslerde \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynama) kullanmak, oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 maliyeti g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck stratejiler aras\u0131nda say\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji hisseleri teknoloji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kayna\u011f\u0131 sunuyor. Sekt\u00f6r, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 beklentileriyle son \u00e7eyrekte %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Kalabal\u0131k teknoloji i\u015flemlerinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek isteyenler, b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ETF\u2019lerinde \u201cnakit teminatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 hisse\/ETF al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak nakitle put sat\u0131p prim geliri elde etme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, prim (opsiyon geliri) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flarken olas\u0131 bir sekt\u00f6r rotasyonunda daha uygun bir maliyetle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street rekor tazeledi ama ralli daral\u0131yor: S&P 500 ve NASDAQ zirvede, \u00e7ip endeksi %2,59 y\u00fckselip YTD %70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Mag-7 gerilerken de\u011ferleme, siyasi risk ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX korunma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46525\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}