ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), piyasalar\u0131n ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi \u00f6ncesi yatay seyirde kalmas\u0131yla 97,96\u2019ya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. ABD hisseleri, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji hisselerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 prim yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri (getiri oranlar\u0131) e\u011frinin genelinde 5\u20137 baz puan (bp; faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim) artt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015fta petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 etkili oldu. Piyasalar bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler aras\u0131nda ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 tahminen \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) ve nisan T\u00dcFE yer al\u0131yor. Piyasa beklentisi T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019ye (\u00f6nceki y\u00fczde 3,3) y\u00fckselmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) i\u00e7in beklenti y\u00fczde 2,7 (\u00f6nceki y\u00fczde 2,6).<\/p>\n
Trump, yurt i\u00e7i yak\u0131t maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedefleyen benzin vergisi tatilini (ge\u00e7ici vergi indirimi) destekledi. Trump\u2019\u0131n 13\u201315 May\u0131s\u2019ta Pekin\u2019de \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme g\u00fcndeminde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n yer almas\u0131 bekleniyor. Di\u011fer konular aras\u0131nda ticaret ate\u015fkesinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, olas\u0131 ikili \u201cTicaret Kurulu\u201d (iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda ticaret konular\u0131n\u0131 ele alacak ortak mekanizma), yapay zek\u00e2 g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve Tayvan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, bu haftan\u0131n kritik ABD T\u00dcFE raporu \u00f6ncesinde temkinli. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 106 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, piyasa beklentileri man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, enflasyon verisinin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz indirimi yerine daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na i\u015faret eden) gelmesi beklentisiyle dolar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerle benzerlik g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli hava ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerine de yans\u0131d\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 4,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00f6neldi. Vadeli piyasa (gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) da buna uyum sa\u011fl\u0131yor: CME FedWatch Tool (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vadeli kontratlardan t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re eyl\u00fcle kadar Fed faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Piyasa, yak\u0131n vadede para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme ihtimalini yeniden zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler de riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de tedarik zincirinde (mal ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve lojistik) yeniden ya\u015fanan aksamalar, WTI tipi ham petrol\u00fc (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri enflasyon beklentilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek tahvil faizlerini destekliyor. K\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n i\u00e7 ekonomik verileri ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fine dair net bir \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 14 civar\u0131nda kalarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. Kritik enflasyon verisi ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik riskler birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanma hakk\u0131) veya ana endekslerde \u201ccollar\u201d (maliyeti dengelemek i\u00e7in al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak koruma stratejisi) gibi korunma y\u00f6ntemleri tercih edilebilir. T\u00dcFE beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelirse bu sakinlik kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, enflasyon verisi endi\u015feleri do\u011frularsa dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131. Dolar lehine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, Japon Yeni veya Euro gibi emtia ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerine (enerji\/ham maddeyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan alan ekonomiler) kar\u015f\u0131 bu temay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir ara\u00e7 olabilir. Dolar, hem artan tahvil faizlerinden hem de g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011finden destek al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi piyasalarda tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken tahvil faizleri 5\u20137 bp artt\u0131, Fed indirimi beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Petrol\/jeopolitik riskler enflasyonu besliyor; VIX d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalsa da oynakl\u0131k kap\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46521\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}