Japonya\u2019n\u0131n CFTC verilerine g\u00f6re JPY\u2019de (Japon yeni) \u201cticari olmayan\u201d (spek\u00fclat\u00f6r) net pozisyonlar \u00a5-102,1 binden \u00a5-61,7 bine y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n
Veri h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif; bu da spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin Yen\u2019de toplamda h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cnet k\u0131sa\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Japon yeni cephesinde belirgin bir duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net k\u0131sa pozisyonu h\u0131zla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n Yen\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentili i\u015flemlerini kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama) g\u00f6steriyor. Bu hareket, bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclen en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama dalgalar\u0131ndan biri ve olas\u0131 bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cnormalle\u015ftirme\u201dyi (\u00e7ok gev\u015fek politikadan daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikaya ge\u00e7i\u015f) piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yapabilece\u011fine dair son mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. 2025\u2019teki temkinli ad\u0131mlardan farkl\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 konu\u015fuluyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ulusal \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,6\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131nca, sonbahar \u00f6ncesi yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali art\u0131yor. Bu temel de\u011fi\u015fim, Yen\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye zorluyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD verileri zay\u0131f. Ge\u00e7en haftaki istihdam raporu 18 ay\u0131n en yava\u015f i\u015fe al\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu durum, piyasada Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oldu. Son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r Yen\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonu k\u00e2rl\u0131 yapan geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) art\u0131k g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr \u015fekilde daral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, Yen\u2019de uzun pozisyon alman\u0131n daha cazip h\u00e2le geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3-6 ay vadeli JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken azami riski (\u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, 2024 sonundaki sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f unutulmamal\u0131: Benzer bir k\u0131sa s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma (k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n panik al\u0131m\u0131yla fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi), beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu verileriyle tersine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc (faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) erteleyebilece\u011fine dair her sinyal, Yen\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u015flemlerini yeniden canland\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle, opsiyonlarla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak veya vadeli i\u015flemlerde (futures: ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss: belirli zararda otomatik kapatma) kullanmak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen\u2019de r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor? CFTC\u2019de spek\u00fclat\u00f6r net k\u0131sa JPY pozisyonu -102,1 binden -61,7 bine geriledi. BoJ normalle\u015fme sinyali, ABD verilerindeki zay\u0131fl\u0131kla USD\/JPY\u2019de trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}