Japonya\u2019n\u0131n CFTC verileri, JPY ticari olmayan (spek\u00fclat\u00f6r) net pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00a5-102,1 binden \u00a5-61,7 bine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n
Bu, net pozisyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif (Yen kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak \u00f6nceki veriye g\u00f6re s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda belirgin bir azalma var: net k\u0131sa pozisyon bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin Yen\u2019in zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131na oynad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u015flemleri h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finden beri g\u00f6r\u00fclen en sert \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon kapatma\u201d (short covering: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayanlar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m yapmas\u0131) hareketi.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) alg\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (core CPI: enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131, para politikas\u0131nda normalle\u015fme (policy normalization: a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikalardan daha \u201cnormal\u201d faiz ve likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD dolar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Son ABD istihdam raporunda yaln\u0131zca 160 bin yeni i\u015f eklendi; bu da beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u0131l bitmeden faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark), Yen\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha az cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivative: de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu tablo, Yen\u2019de k\u0131sa kalmay\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirme sinyali veriyor. Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u201czarar durdurma seviyesi\u201d net olan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan uzak JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money call: mevcut kura g\u00f6re daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Burada \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert hareketlere k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor; bu da olas\u0131 bir kal\u0131c\u0131 Yen de\u011ferlenmesine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu duygu de\u011fi\u015fimi, mevcut k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem (futures: belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya forward (ileri tarihli kur s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) pozisyonlar\u0131nda \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2023 sonundaki k\u0131sa pozisyon kapatma rallisinde, alg\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde USD\/JPY\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert d\u00fc\u015febildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut veriler, benzer bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmenin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda olabilece\u011fimize i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen\u2019de dengeler de\u011fi\u015fiyor: CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net k\u0131sa JPY pozisyonu \u00a5-102,1 binden \u00a5-61,7 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin tonu ve zay\u0131flayan dolar, USD\/JPY\u2019de sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46505"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46505\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}