ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) artmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli limanlara (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131lan dolar, yen, alt\u0131n gibi varl\u0131klar) talebin azalmas\u0131yla 97,90\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi. Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD ve \u0130ran, yeni askeri olaylara ra\u011fmen ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesini (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyen temel anla\u015fma zemini) korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve iki taraf\u0131n da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Petrol kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; bu da yeni bir enflasyon \u015foku (fiyatlar\u0131n yeniden h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi) endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m hari\u00e7 i\u015fe eklenen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131) nisan ay\u0131nda 115 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik %4,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k bazda yava\u015flad\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi alg\u0131s\u0131) sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri (devlet tahvillerinin getirisi) de geriledi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD 1,1780, GBP\/USD 1,3620 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken USD\/JPY 156,60\u2019a do\u011fru indi. AUD\/USD 0,7240\u2019a y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekilse de varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95,30 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerindeki s\u00fcren duraklamay\u0131 izliyor. Alt\u0131n 4.720 dolar civar\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar 11\u201315 May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verileri izliyor: ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun temel g\u00f6stergesi), \u00dcFE (PPI: \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi, maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir), perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve sanayi \u00fcretimi. Ayr\u0131ca Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) ve GSYH (GDP: gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH ve \u00fcretim verileri. Programlanan konu\u015fmalar aras\u0131nda ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yetkilileri ile BoE\u2019den (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) Mann yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risklerin yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve 97,90\u2019a geriliyor. \u0130ki hafta \u00f6nce 100,50\u2019ye yak\u0131n seviyelerden gelen bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Son istihdam raporunda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 da enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hafifleyebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da dolar\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro ve Sterlin gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. EUR\/USD\u2019de (\u015fu an 1,1780 civar\u0131) opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Opsiyon, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcr; oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f dalgalanmas\u0131) enerji fiyatlar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa ECB\u2019nin faizi h\u0131zl\u0131 indirmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2022-2023\u2019teki enflasyon \u015fokunu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; merkez bankalar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 durmak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; USD\/JPY 156,60\u2019a inerken ABD tahvil faizleri geriliyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi bu hafta %3,85\u2019in alt\u0131na indi; b\u00f6ylece Japon devlet tahvillerine g\u00f6re faiz fark\u0131 (getiri avantaj\u0131) darald\u0131. Bu durum Yeni daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve USD\/JPY\u2019de put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) de\u011fer sunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, gelecek haftaki kritik ABD enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde temkin gerekli. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE ana g\u00fcndem. Beklentinin \u00fczerinde bir veri dolar\u0131n son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Piyasa beklentisi \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2 artmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu nedenle k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedging: olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petrol belirsizli\u011fin ba\u015fl\u0131ca kayna\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; diplomatik ilerlemeye ra\u011fmen WTI 95,30 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. 2025 boyunca K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen aksakl\u0131klar, k\u0131r\u0131lgan arz rotalar\u0131n\u0131n (tedarik yollar\u0131) ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tehdit alt\u0131nda kalabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. WTI\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan, daha ucuz ama daha riskli) al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 etkili bir korunma olabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.720 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD faizlerinden destek buluyor ancak artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 4.800 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelerden geri \u00e7ekildi; yine de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Gelecek hafta daha zay\u0131f bir ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, reel faizi (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri) daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n yeniden rekorlara y\u00f6nelmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar endeksi, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve \u0130ran-ABD ate\u015fkes umuduyla 97,90\u2019a sarkt\u0131; petrol gev\u015fedi, enflasyon korkusu azald\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam, d\u00fc\u015fen tahvil faizleri ve kritik T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi temkin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}