Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Endeksi (SOX) i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki bir incelemede, tarihsel g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n **a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m** durumunu g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck ortalama getiriler **k\u0131sa vadede -%7**, **orta vadede +%15\u2013%25**, **uzun vadede -%8 ile -%26** aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7lar, g\u00fcnl\u00fck **RSI5** (5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI) **95\u2019in**, **RSI14** (14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI) ise **83,5\u2019in** \u00fczerindeyken ge\u00e7erliydi.<\/p>\n
Sonras\u0131nda endeks **%6,7** d\u00fc\u015ferek **28 Nisan**\u2019da dip yapt\u0131, ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k **%11** y\u00fckseldi. Endeks 28 Nisan\u2019da **9.865** seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve daha sonra **11.760** civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Elliott Dalga \u0130lkesi\u2019ne (EWP: piyasan\u0131n **tekrarlayan 5 dalgal\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler** ve **3 dalgal\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeler** halinde ilerledi\u011fini varsayan, kesin de\u011fil **olas\u0131l\u0131ksal** bir teknik analiz yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) g\u00f6re say\u0131m; hareketin \u201c3\u2019\u00fcn 3\u2019\u00fc\u201d dalgas\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanmas\u0131 (ye\u015fil W-3, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-iii i\u00e7inde) olarak tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan **9.700 +\/- 200** civar\u0131nda ye\u015fil W-4 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Devam\u0131nda W-5 i\u00e7in **13.000+** potansiyeli, daha sonra daha b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-iii ve W-iv dalgalar\u0131 ve 2025 Nisan dibinden sonraki hareketin ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 (bear market: **uzun s\u00fcreli ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi**) ihtimali not edilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Metin, EWP\u2019yi **Fibonacci ili\u015fkileri** (Fibonacci: fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri \u00e7ekilme\/oran seviyeleri) ve **alternasyon** (alternation: d\u00fczeltmelerin bi\u00e7im olarak d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc gelmesi) gibi kurallarla y\u00f6nlendirilen bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olarak anlat\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, dalgalar\u0131n uzamas\u0131 veya karma\u015f\u0131k alt b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler nedeniyle ger\u00e7ek zamanda etiketlerin yeniden de\u011fi\u015ftirilebilmesi gibi bir s\u0131n\u0131ra dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-iii\u2019nin sona yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi, ye\u015fil W-5 i\u00e7indeki gri W-v\u2019nin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yukar\u0131 hedefin **12.110\u201312.300** oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Sonras\u0131nda **10.000** civar\u0131na bir geri \u00e7ekilme (retrace: y\u00fckseli\u015fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri veren **d\u00fczeltme\/hareket geri alma**) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (derivative: de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan **vadeli\/opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler**) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (momentum: fiyat\u0131n **h\u0131z ve g\u00fc\u00e7** g\u00f6stergesi) de\u011fi\u015fimine haz\u0131rl\u0131k kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilerin daralt\u0131lmas\u0131 veya kapat\u0131lmas\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon)** ya da **bear put spread** (iki put ile kurulan, maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan **d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejisi**) \u00fczerinden yeni pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 zaman\u0131nda olabilir. Bu ara\u00e7lar, **10.000** seviyesine do\u011fru beklenen geri \u00e7ekilmeden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, son ekonomik verilerle de desteklendi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni anketi **76,5**\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en ayki **79,4** seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi; bu durum, y\u00fcksek teknoloji de\u011ferlemeleri (valuation: \u015firket\/ sekt\u00f6r fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n **pahal\u0131 m\u0131 ucuz mu** oldu\u011funa dair \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feye i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7ip da\u011f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n stok verileri, arz\u0131n (supply: piyasadaki \u00fcr\u00fcn miktar\u0131) nihayet talebi (demand: al\u0131m iste\u011fi) yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00f6nemli bir etkenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirirken oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n **dalgalanma \u015fiddeti**) belirgin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n VIX\u2019i (VIX: S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasadaki **beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131** \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) izlemesi \u00f6neriliyor; VIX \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeler olan **13** civar\u0131nda seyrederken s\u0131\u00e7ramaya a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc **beklenen dalgalanma**) artarsa opsiyonlar pahalan\u0131r; bu nedenle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131, h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6rece ucuzken kurman\u0131n avantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen geri \u00e7ekilmenin yeni bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde gerekli bir d\u00fczeltme oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Hareketin **10.000** civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu seviye Fibonacci analizine g\u00f6re mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme alan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu hedef, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131nda k\u00e2r al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in net bir seviye sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SOX\u2019ta RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m sonras\u0131 d\u00fczeltme sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re 12.110\u201312.300 hedefi sonras\u0131 10.000\u2019e retrace olas\u0131. Put\/bear spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; VIX 13\u2019ten s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t