USD\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin artmas\u0131yla Japon Yeni\u2019ne (JPY) talebin y\u00fckselmesi sonucu 156,60\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi. Fox News, ablukay\u0131 delmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bo\u015f tanker gemilerine y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. \u0130ran ise herhangi bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ya da k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmaya \u201ct\u00fcm g\u00fcc\u00fcyle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Parite 156,63 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasa genelindeki hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, ABD Dolar\u0131 haftal\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131nd\u0131. ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 yeni istihdam) Nisan\u2019da 115 bin artt\u0131; beklenti 62 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar (\u00fccretlerde ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY\u2019nin 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama; belirli d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131) 156,77 seviyesinin ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n 158,39 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. RSI (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/ivmesini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 156,63, 156,71 ve 156,82; destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 156,44 olarak verildi.<\/p>\n
Notta, teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019teki duruma benzer bir tablo olu\u015ftu\u011fu ifade edildi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Yen\u2019e giri\u015fleri art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD istihdam verisi beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde belirleyici unsur, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131yd\u0131; bu durum ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki genel g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak daha temkinli bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. Bu y\u00f6ntem, jeopolitik risk art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya da ABD ekonomisinde yava\u015flama sinyallerinin paritede ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma sa\u011flar. Ayr\u0131ca riskin ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r ve 155,00 gibi psikolojik seviyeye (yuvarlak rakamlar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Piyasa korkusunu \u00f6l\u00e7en VIX (CBOE Volatilite Endeksi; S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanma g\u00f6stergesi) 14,5 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede. Bu g\u00f6rece sakin ortam, opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonu sat\u0131n alma maliyeti) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir ve korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyonlar i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir pencere sunar. Dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek, bu t\u00fcr korunmalar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
2024-2025 d\u00f6neminde Japon yetkililerin Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etti\u011finin hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 notta, m\u00fcdahale ihtimalinin USD\/JPY i\u00e7in \u201ctavan\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan etki) olu\u015fturdu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Bu nedenle net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f plan\u0131 olmadan daha riskli oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Bu risk, paritenin yatay seyri ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme at\u0131fla, paritenin \u00f6nemli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131n momentumun (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi ifade edildi. Bu nedenle 158,00 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7lere do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin, \u201ccall spread\u201d satmak (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu ile risk\/s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiri profili kurmak; genelde y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Bu strateji, paritenin yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapamamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar ve m\u00fcdahale riski ile belirsiz verilerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi Yen\u2019e talebi art\u0131rd\u0131, USD\/JPY 156,60\u2019a geriledi. ABD istihdam\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131f. Momentum a\u015fa\u011f\u0131; 156,44 destek. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe put, y\u00fckseli\u015fe call-spread \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46495\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}