Century Aluminium (CENX), ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da faaliyet g\u00f6steren bir birincil al\u00fcminyum \u00fcreticisidir. Hisse fiyat\u0131 bu sabah fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Mart sonundaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 46 dolardan, nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda 68\u201369 dolar band\u0131na kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan zirveye yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (ay\u0131 sinyali) g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana fiyat, net destek (fiyat\u0131n tutunma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu seviye) ve diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) b\u00f6lgeleriyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimde. Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerse ilk destek alan\u0131 53,25 dolardaki \u201cbo\u015fluk kapanmas\u0131\u201d (gap fill: grafikte h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketle olu\u015fan fiyat bo\u015flu\u011funun sonradan doldurulmas\u0131) seviyesi; bu, mevcut fiyat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2013%11 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Bunun alt\u0131nda 51,13 dolarda 0,786 Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilmesi (\u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015fin olas\u0131 geri alma oran\u0131) var ve bir \u201cpivot\u201d seviyesiyle (fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye e\u011filimli oldu\u011fu d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131) \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bir di\u011fer destek b\u00f6lgesi, Fibonacci seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131ndaki 46,65 dolardaki bo\u015fluk kapanmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde, fiyat toparlan\u0131rsa iki diren\u00e7 alan\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130lki 65,61 dolardaki bo\u015fluk kapanmas\u0131; bu seviye mevcut fiyat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi 68,29 dolar civar\u0131. Bu seviye, \u201c\u00e7ift tepe\u201d (double top: iki kez zirve yap\u0131p ge\u00e7emeyerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali veren formasyon) ve nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n \u00f6nceki pivot zirveyle uyumlu. T\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesi \u00fczerine ge\u00e7i\u015f ise \u201ck\u0131r\u0131lma\u201d (breakout: \u00f6nemli direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fc, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in referans kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Mart ve nisan aylar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan CENX toparlanmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Bu, LME al\u00fcminyum fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (Londra Metal Borsas\u0131 referans fiyatlar\u0131) son zirvelerden yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 gerileyerek ton ba\u015f\u0131na 2.550 dolar civar\u0131na inmesiyle uyumlu. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda hissedeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi (bounce: k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanma) denemek isteyenler i\u00e7in 53,25 dolardaki bo\u015fluk kapanmas\u0131, agresif bir i\u015flem i\u00e7in ilk izlenecek seviye. Bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 burada k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 veya sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; ancak bu, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tepki i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek riskli bir stratejidir. 2025\u2019teki y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00f6neminde bu t\u00fcr ilk desteklerin, genel piyasa zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m, 46,65 dolar seviyesini beklemek olabilir; bu seviye hem bo\u015fluk kapanmas\u0131 hem de \u00f6nemli bir Fibonacci seviyesiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu b\u00f6lge, olas\u0131 bir dip olu\u015fumu i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sunar. Son ISM \u0130malat PMI verisinin (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 49,8 gelerek hafif daralmay\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi, al\u0131m i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7eyi \u00f6nemli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha iyi risk-getiri (al\u0131nan riske kar\u015f\u0131 beklenen kazan\u00e7) f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle hisse \u201crahatlama rallisi\u201d (relief rally: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa toparlanma) denerse, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 65,61 dolardaki bo\u015fluk kapanmas\u0131na do\u011fru her y\u00fckseli\u015f, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak veya a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonu (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunabilir. Bu strateji, \u015firketin son finansal sonu\u00e7 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda enerji maliyetleri ve talebe ili\u015fkin temkinli y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle de (guidance: y\u00f6netimin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklenti payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Ana a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f b\u00f6lgesi, hissini nisanda sert bi\u00e7imde geri \u00e7evrildi\u011fi 68,29 dolar civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ift tepe alan\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Bu seviyede yeniden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit eder. Bu \u00fcst seviyelerden a\u00e7\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015flarda, zarar-kes (stop: zarar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden pozisyondan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f emri) t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvelerinin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde konulmal\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
CENX\u2019te ralli sonras\u0131 alarm: Mart sonu 46$\u2019dan 69$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kan hisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde. Kritik destekler 53,25\/51,13\/46,65$; diren\u00e7 65,61 ve 68,29$. LME al\u00fcminyum %5 geriledi; short f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46487\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}