Almanya\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretimi martta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,7 geriledi; \u015fubattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir seviyeye revize edildi (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde d\u00fczeltildi). \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek \u00fcretimi, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Marttaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana nedeni, imalat sanayinde (fabrika \u00fcretimi) \u00fcretimin azalmas\u0131 oldu. \u0130n\u015faat faaliyetleri martta artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 martta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131; \u015fubatta %4,7 idi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan fazla olmas\u0131) martta darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eyreklik sanayi \u00fcretimi d\u00fc\u015ferken d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 da azal\u0131nca, ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk tahminde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon riski artt\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f ve y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, zay\u0131f verilerle ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
Sanayi \u00fcretiminin yeniden art\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in ikinci \u00e7eyrekte en az %1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme gerekiyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 nisanda da artmaya devam etti; tedarik zinciri (\u00fcretim i\u00e7in ham madde ve ara mallar\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f) kesintisi riski de y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u00e7ekirde\u011fi konumundaki Almanya ekonomisindeki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, tek para birimi \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. EUR\/USD (Euro\/dolar paritesi) son bir ayda 1,05 destek seviyesini (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde tutunma e\u011filimindeki seviye) birka\u00e7 kez test etti; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar dolar\u0131 daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri i\u00e7in dolara y\u00f6neliyor. Bu nedenle, Euro\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde (a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7layan pozisyon) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve daha fazla gerileme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetlerindeki devam eden art\u0131\u015f ana etken. Avrupa do\u011fal gaz vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) nisanda %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckselerek megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na 55 avro civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2022\u2019de de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 Almanya\u2019da uzun s\u00fcren bir imalat daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, bu durgunlu\u011fun bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha derin ve uzun olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) birlikte y\u00fckselmesi, piyasalarda belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile zay\u0131flayan ekonomiyi destekleme aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. VSTOXX endeksi (Euro B\u00f6lgesi hisse piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131k endeksi; dalgalanma beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7er) gibi oynakl\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) almak, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen piyasa hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in temkinli bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Almanya sanayi \u00fcretimi martta %0,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u015fubat revize edildi; ihracat yava\u015flad\u0131, d\u0131\u015f fazla darald\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131yla Euro zay\u0131f, ECB ikilemde, volatilite riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46480","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46480"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46480\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}