Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc verileri, ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Hanehalk\u0131, mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve genel ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha zay\u0131f de\u011ferlendiriyor. T\u00fcketici Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi (t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) Nisan\u2019daki 49,8\u2019den 48,2\u2019ye indi; 49,5 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut Ko\u015fullar Endeksi (t\u00fcketicinin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc durum alg\u0131s\u0131) 52,5\u2019ten 47,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Beklentiler g\u00f6stergesi (\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme dair alg\u0131) 48,1\u2019den 48,5\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon beklentileri (hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n gelecekte fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l bekledi\u011fi) gev\u015fedi. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %4,7\u2019den %4,5\u2019e indi. Be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve birka\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6sterir) 98,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki zay\u0131flama, ekonomideki ger\u00e7ek tablo ile piyasa beklentileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na odaklanan i\u015flemler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son verisi, Nisan perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesi) %0,4 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n harcamay\u0131 k\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim hisseleri (zorunlu olmayan harcamalara duyarl\u0131 \u015firketler) i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk anlam\u0131na geliyor. XLY gibi ETF\u2019lerde (bir endeksi izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) koruyucu \u201cput\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta niteli\u011finde opsiyon) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir korunma arac\u0131 (hedge, riski dengeleme) olabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan enflasyon beklentilerinin so\u011fumas\u0131, yaln\u0131zca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir senaryoyu zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eli\u015fki, y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok belirsizlikten kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX, S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) son diplerinden 19\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. VIX \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonu (endeks y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak veya SPX endeksinde (S&P 500 endeksi) \u201ciron condor\u201d kurmak (fiyat\u0131n belli bantta kalmas\u0131na oynayan, iki farkl\u0131 opsiyon spread\u2019inin birle\u015fimi) uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz ve d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan veri, g\u00fcvercin Fed anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (Fed\u2019in daha gev\u015fek, faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n duru\u015fu) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve dolara a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. DXY\u2019nin kritik 98,00 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na inmesi teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli; bu, zay\u0131flaman\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Getiriler d\u00fc\u015ferken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (Treasury futures, tahvil fiyat\u0131na dayal\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem) al\u0131m\u0131n ve Euro veya Yen gibi para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 g\u00f6rmenin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni alarm veriyor: Michigan endeksi 48,2\u2019ye inerken mevcut ko\u015fullar sert bozuldu. Enflasyon beklentileri geriledi, DXY 98 alt\u0131. VIX 19; put, VIX call, iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46476\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}