ABD\u2019de 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentisi may\u0131sta %3,4\u2019e geriledi. \u00d6nceki veri %3,5\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, uzun vadeli enflasyonun daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde dengelenebilece\u011fine (beklentilerin \u201c\u00e7apalanmas\u0131\u201d, yani kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde yerle\u015fmesi) i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle faiz ve tahvil fiyatlar\u0131na dayal\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (faiz t\u00fcrevleri: faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131rken, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ara verme) ya da daha yumu\u015fak bir duru\u015fa (g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: faiz art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme veya durdurma) ge\u00e7me alan\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bu da \u201cu\u00e7 risk\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama b\u00fcy\u00fck etkili olumsuz senaryo) azalt\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tahvil faizlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe (tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce tahvil fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselir) y\u00f6nelik pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmeli.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Nisan 2026 istihdam raporunu destekliyor. Raporda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,9\u2019a yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu seviye 2025 sonundan beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeydi. Bu nedenle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m taraf\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Faizlerin %3,75\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesi bu pozisyonlar\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir. TLT gibi tahvil ETF\u2019leri (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck sermaye ile ayn\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131tman\u0131n verimli bir yoludur.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda bu geli\u015fme, faiz politikas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve teknoloji hisseleri i\u00e7in daha olumlu. Nasdaq 100, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in daha az \u015fahin (\u015fahin: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131\/ daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) olabilece\u011fini fiyatlamas\u0131yla son bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 y\u00fckseldi. Bu e\u011filimi QQQ \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz; kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yeni zirvelerin test edilmesini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde se\u00e7ilebilir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon endi\u015fesinin azalmas\u0131, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi) da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. VIX (S&P 500 oynakl\u0131k endeksi) \u015fu anda 14 civar\u0131nda; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015feleri daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc iken 18\u2019in \u00fczeri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ortam, opsiyon primi satmay\u0131 (opsiyon primi: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) daha cazip k\u0131lar; \u00f6rne\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisselerde nakit teminatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in nakit ayr\u0131larak sat\u0131lan put) satmak gibi.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in daha az agresif olmas\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir; \u00f6zellikle di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse. \u00d6rne\u011fin Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,1 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 sorun olmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) vadeli i\u015flemlerle k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) a\u00e7arak veya UUP gibi dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) alarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD\u2019de 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi may\u0131sta %3,4\u2019e indi. Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi azalabilir; tahvil faizlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. TLT\/10Y long, Nasdaq-QQQ call, DXY short stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}