Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici Beklentileri Endeksi may\u0131sta 48,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm 48,1 idi.<\/p>\n
Endeks, ABD\u2019li t\u00fcketicilerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda ekonominin nas\u0131l performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fini nas\u0131l bekledi\u011fini \u00f6l\u00e7er.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici beklentilerindeki 48,5\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tabloya i\u015faret etmiyor; sadece k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin biraz daha az sertle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede piyasan\u0131n net bir y\u00f6n bulmakta zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ana endekslerde iron condor gibi stratejilerle prim satmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. (Prim satmak, opsiyon sat\u0131p gelir elde etmek; iron condor ise fiyat\u0131n belli bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak kurulan, \u201cyatay piyasa\u201d odakl\u0131 bir stratejidir.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n bant d\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) yerine bant i\u00e7inde kalma senaryosuna oynar.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,1 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla birlikte ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. Fed\u2019in, t\u00fcketicinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentisindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi anlamak i\u00e7in federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri izliyoruz. (Federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki politika faizini hangi seviyede bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren vadeli kontratlard\u0131r; t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler ise fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/kontrata ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lard\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6r taraf\u0131nda, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) hisselerde temkinli duru\u015fumuz s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019teki yava\u015flama d\u00f6neminde, alg\u0131daki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck toparlanmalar\u0131n bile, b\u00fct\u00e7eler s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kken zorunlu olmayan harcamalar\u0131 art\u0131rmaya yetmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131na (put, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kullan\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) bakabilir veya e\u015fle\u015fmi\u015f i\u015flem (pairs trade) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin zorunlu t\u00fcketim (consumer staples) taraf\u0131nda uzun (long, y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon) ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketimde k\u0131sa (short, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon) olunabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanmaya benziyor. 48,5 seviyesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 daralma ile geni\u015flemeyi ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen 50 e\u015fi\u011finin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda; bu da resesyon endi\u015felerinin (ekonomik daralma riski) g\u00fcndemden kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde koruyucu put almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ihtiyatl\u0131 bir riskten korunma (hedge) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. (Hedge, olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan korunma i\u015flemleridir.)<\/p>\n
Michigan t\u00fcketici beklentileri may\u0131sta 48,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; h\u00e2l\u00e2 50 alt\u0131, resesyon ve oynakl\u0131k riski canl\u0131. Fed indirimi ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken iron condor, koruyucu put ve staples-long\/discretionary-short \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46472\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}