{"id":46469,"date":"2026-05-08T18:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T18:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abdde-istihdam-artisi-beklentileri-asti-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-fed-senaryosunu-guclendirdi-dolara-destek-verdi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T18:27:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T18:27:54","slug":"abdde-istihdam-artisi-beklentileri-asti-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-fed-senaryosunu-guclendirdi-dolara-destek-verdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abdde-istihdam-artisi-beklentileri-asti-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-fed-senaryosunu-guclendirdi-dolara-destek-verdi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131; \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d Fed senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, dolara destek verdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de istihdam Nisan\u2019da 115 bin artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasa beklentisi olan +65 binin ve Commerzbank tahmini olan +50 binin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Revizyonlar (ge\u00e7mi\u015f verilerin g\u00fcncellenmesi) nedeniyle \u015eubat ve Mart toplam\u0131, daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanana g\u00f6re 16 bin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n

Son 11 ayda ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimleri art\u0131 ve eksi aras\u0131nda gidip geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in Nisan\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleniyordu. Ancak son 6 ay\u0131n ortalama istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeniden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Labor Market Momentum<\/h3>\n

Atlanta Fed \u201cmedyan \u00fccret takip\u00e7isi\u201d (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ortanca de\u011ferle \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge), \u00fccretlerin biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n daha \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funa (eleman bulman\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu y\u00fczden \u00fccretlerin yukar\u0131 bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortama) i\u015faret ediyor. Conference Board\u2019un t\u00fcketici anketi, t\u00fcketicilerin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 daha olumlu g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n

\u015eirket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrekte sert y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum genelde daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m ve i\u015fe al\u0131mla ili\u015fkilendirilir. Rapora g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2rlar ve elveri\u015fli finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 (bor\u00e7lanma ve krediye eri\u015fimin g\u00f6rece rahat olmas\u0131) i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Son ABD istihdam raporu, 2025\u2019teki baz\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloya benzer \u015fekilde beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. Ge\u00e7en haftaki Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi, Nisan 2026\u2019da 210 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi ve 180 binlik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Bu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fccretler \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun (Core PCE: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu) %3,1\u2019de kalmas\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanabilecek ara\u00e7lara bakmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (SOFR futures: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizine dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131), 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha az faiz indirimi fiyatlayan senaryolara g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Fed \u00fcyesi Waller\u2019\u0131n, ad\u0131m atmadan \u00f6nce daha ikna edici veriye ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesi de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Dollar Rates And Volatility<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutmaya devam edebilir. \u00d6zellikle di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 daha zay\u0131f verilerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa bu e\u011filim g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. Benzer bir durum 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: faiz farklar\u0131 (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131 fark\u0131) dolar\u0131n Euro ve Yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemi\u015fti. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepeti kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) \u201ccall spread\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejileri (opsiyonla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi kurma), \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ften faydalanman\u0131n kontroll\u00fc bir yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n

G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 olumlu olsa da \u201cfaizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131\u201d hisse de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir; \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde. Piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimi takvimini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. VIX endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (VIX: piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) almak, S&P 500 gibi ana endekslerde olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma (hedge: riski azaltma ama\u00e7l\u0131 pozisyon) olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de istihdam Nisan\u2019da 115 binle beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; \u00fccretlerde h\u0131zlanma \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d piyasaya i\u015faret. \u00c7ekirdek PCE %3,1\u2019deyken Fed indirimi zor: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, artan volatilite, hedge f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46469\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}