ABD ve \u0130ran medyas\u0131nda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kan haberler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yeni askeri hareketlilik ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Fox News muhabiri X\u2019te, ABD ordusunun ablukay\u0131 delmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan birka\u00e7 bo\u015f tankere yeni hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Mehr haber ajans\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yak\u0131n bir liman kenti olan Sirik\u2019te bir patlama sesinin duyuldu\u011funu bildirdi. Haber s\u0131ras\u0131nda resmi bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar Washington veya Tahran\u2019dan gelecek resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 beklerken, dikkat olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma riskinde kald\u0131. Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI: ABD\u2019de referans kabul edilen ham petrol fiyat\u0131) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda %2,83 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 91,90 dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki askeri ad\u0131mlara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n tepkisi s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131. Normalde b\u00f6yle gerilimler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 iter. Ancak WTI d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli arz kesintisinden (piyasaya petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n aksamas\u0131) \u00e7ok, genel ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riskini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131kta\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) sert art\u0131\u015f beklenebilir. Bu, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerine ve USO gibi borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131na (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) dayal\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n pahalanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette kazand\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefler) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle dalgalanmaya oynayabilir.<\/p>\n
Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, son ekonomik verilere ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Piyasa, arz riskinden \u00e7ok \u201ctalep tahribat\u0131n\u0131\u201d (demand destruction: y\u00fcksek fiyatlar ve zay\u0131f ekonomi nedeniyle t\u00fcketimin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde azalmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA: ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) son verisi, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta beklentilerin aksine 1,8 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fcresel talep verilerindeki zay\u0131flama e\u011filimiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo ge\u00e7mi\u015ften farkl\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin Eyl\u00fcl 2019\u2019da Suudi Arabistan petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Brent petrol (k\u00fcresel referans fiyat) bir g\u00fcnde %19\u2019a kadar s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, hatta negatif fiyat tepkisi, piyasada oda\u011f\u0131n arzdan talebe kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli arz endi\u015fesinde de benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm vard\u0131: \u0130lk fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel stoklar nedeniyle h\u0131zla s\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u015fimdilik bu t\u00fcr bir kesintiye kar\u015f\u0131 piyasada ciddi bir \u201ctampon\u201d (y\u00fcksek stok ve yedek kapasite sayesinde \u015foku emme g\u00fcc\u00fc) oldu\u011funu fiyatl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131da olan al\u0131m opsiyonu; \u015fu an i\u00e7in k\u00e2rs\u0131z) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ilgin\u00e7 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr opsiyonlar, hafta sonu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma t\u0131rman\u0131rsa sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de askeri hareketlilik ve Sirik\u2019te patlama iddias\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n WTI %2,83 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 91,90 dolara indi: piyasalar arz \u015fokundan \u00e7ok talep tahribat\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131k k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}