{"id":46459,"date":"2026-05-08T15:28:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T15:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abdde-istihdam-yavaslarken-enflasyon-inatci-seyrini-koruyor-fed-gorunumu-belirsiz-volatilite-islemleri-one-cikiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T15:28:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T15:28:29","slug":"abdde-istihdam-yavaslarken-enflasyon-inatci-seyrini-koruyor-fed-gorunumu-belirsiz-volatilite-islemleri-one-cikiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abdde-istihdam-yavaslarken-enflasyon-inatci-seyrini-koruyor-fed-gorunumu-belirsiz-volatilite-islemleri-one-cikiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de istihdam yava\u015flarken enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini koruyor; Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirsiz, volatilite i\u015flemleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rlerde i\u015fe al\u0131m say\u0131s\u0131) Nisan\u2019da 115 bin artt\u0131. Mart art\u0131\u015f\u0131 185 bin oldu (178 binden yukar\u0131 revize edildi) ve 62 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,3\u2019te kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131 (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan veya i\u015f arayanlar\u0131n toplam n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131) y\u00fczde 61,9\u2019dan 61,8\u2019e geriledi. Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar (\u00fccretlerin y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; ancak y\u00fczde 3,8 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

BLS (ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu) \u015eubat istihdam\u0131n\u0131 23 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize ederek -156 bine \u00e7ekti. Mart verisi 7 bin yukar\u0131 revize edilerek +185 bin oldu. \u015eubat ve Mart toplam\u0131, daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanana g\u00f6re 16 bin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Dolar Tepkisi ve Piyasa Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Verilere ra\u011fmen ABD Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) yay\u0131mlanma s\u0131ras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 97,88\u2019deydi. Veri \u00f6ncesinde piyasada 62 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 4,3 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 bekleniyordu. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,8 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken \u00f6nceki seviye y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019ti.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc veri) Nisan\u2019da +109 bin oldu; \u00f6nceki +61 bin (62 binden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi). ISM hizmetler istihdam endeksi (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde istihdam e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren anket verisi) Nisan\u2019da 48, Mart\u2019ta 45,2 seviyesindeydi. CME FedWatch (piyasan\u0131n Fed faiz beklentilerini olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) 2026 sonuna kadar faizin y\u00fczde 3,5\u20133,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 70 g\u00f6sterdi; 25 baz puan (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 13, 25 baz puan indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 17 oldu.<\/p>\n

Nisan 2025 istihdam raporuna bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 115 binlik art\u0131\u015f beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu durum, piyasa tepkisinin her zaman do\u011frudan olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan etkilenebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Olumlu haberlerin dolar\u0131 otomatik olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmemesi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan \u00f6nemli bir ders olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev \u00dcr\u00fcnler \u0130\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz, faiz, endeks gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, net y\u00f6n yerine oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130stihdam ve enflasyon verilerinin \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller vermesi, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 belirsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu da faizde tek y\u00f6ne bahisleri daha riskli hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle, sert fiyat hareketlerinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir: \u00d6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD gibi ana paritelerde bir \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket olursa y\u00f6n fark etmeden kazan\u00e7 hedefler) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; daha geni\u015f hareket beklenir) enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

Belirsizlik nedeniyle VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (VIX, S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; al\u0131m opsiyonu, fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Endeks \u015fu anda 16 ile tarihsel olarak orta bir seviyede i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Beklenmedik bir veri, 2024 sonlar\u0131nda kritik T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7er) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert hareketlere benzer bir oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 yaratabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dalgal\u0131 seyirden faydalanacak pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de Nisan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 115 binle beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131, i\u015fsizlik %4,3\u2019te kald\u0131. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Dolar endeksi geriledi; Fed patikas\u0131 belirsiz, oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}