ABD ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daraltma \u00e7abalar\u0131, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na giden ABD dolar\u0131 miktar\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Bu da ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na (ABD tahvilleri gibi menkul k\u0131ymetler) geri d\u00f6nen dolar miktar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve \u201c\u00f6demeler dengesi etkisiyle\u201d Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. (\u00d6demeler dengesi: Bir \u00fclkenin d\u00fcnyayla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm para giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kayd\u0131d\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 ve istihdam\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc) dengelenirse, Dolar\u2019daki k\u0131sa vadeli hareketler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Nisan ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) Londra 13:30\u2019da (New York 08:30) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasa beklentisi Mart ay\u0131ndaki +178 binin ard\u0131ndan +65 bin; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019te kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Mart\u2019a kadar olan \u00fc\u00e7 ayda istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ayl\u0131k ortalama 68 bin oldu. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ara\u015ft\u0131rma notuna g\u00f6re, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi nedeniyle i\u015fsizli\u011fi sabit tutmak i\u00e7in gereken \u201cdenge\u201d (breakeven) istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2026\u2019da ortalama ayl\u0131k 18 bine kadar d\u00fc\u015febilir. (Breakeven: \u0130\u015fsizlik artmadan ekonominin \u201cyetti\u011fi\u201d asgari istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131.)<\/p>\n
May\u0131s University of Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi Londra 15:00\u2019te (New York 10:00) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentileri yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. New York Fed\u2019in t\u00fcketici beklentileri anketi ise Nisan\u2019da 3 ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinin 12 ayl\u0131k hareketli ortalama civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. (Hareketli ortalama: Son belirli d\u00f6nemlerin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 alarak dalgalanmay\u0131 yumu\u015fatan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm.)<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6netimin ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daraltma hedefini ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bir olumsuzluk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az dolar \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r; bu da para birimine yap\u0131sal (kal\u0131c\u0131) talebi zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Mart 2026 verisi ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 65,8 milyar dolara hafif geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stererek bu temel bask\u0131y\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede ise Dolar\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor; bu da Fed\u2019in \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi yanl\u0131s\u0131, daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. Bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131klanan Nisan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi 75 bin art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019ye indi. Bu rakam, i\u015fsizli\u011fi sabit tutmak i\u00e7in gereken 18 binlik ayl\u0131k seviyenin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde; Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015funu korumas\u0131na alan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Uzun vadede zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ile k\u0131sa vadede istikrarl\u0131 verilerin \u00e7eki\u015fmesi, Dolar\u2019\u0131n ana paritelerde \u201cbant i\u00e7inde\u201d (belirli bir alt-\u00fcst seviye aras\u0131nda) hareket etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) geriliyor. Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) y\u0131l\u0131n diplerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu ortam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazanmaya y\u00f6nelik stratejilere uygundur; \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cstrangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d. (Strangle: Farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p fiyat\u0131n dar bantta kalmas\u0131ndan prim geliri hedefleyen strateji.)<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri Dolar\u2019a ge\u00e7ici destek vermi\u015f ancak yeni zirveye ta\u015f\u0131yamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdi fark, denge istihdam h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131; yani \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bile Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 geciktirebilir. Bu, tavan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Dolar i\u00e7in daha sa\u011flam bir \u201ctaban\u201d yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
University of Michigan anketinde \u00f6zellikle enflasyon beklentileri b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc izlenecek. D\u00fcn New York Fed anketi uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201c\u00e7apal\u0131\u201d (anchored: Kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 kaymayan) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc veri de bunu do\u011frularsa, Fed\u2019den \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131, daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika) s\u00fcrpriz ihtimali azal\u0131r. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla piyasalar, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %35 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor. (CME FedWatch: Vadeli i\u015flemlere bakarak Fed faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Dolar\u2019\u0131n belirli bir bantta kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015eu anki fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 k\u00e2rl\u0131 olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyelden yararlanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Bu strateji Dolar yatay ya da hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket ederse getiri sa\u011flayabilir; istikrarl\u0131 istihdam verileri ise sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\u2019da y\u00f6n arayan piyasa: ABD\u2019nin ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daraltmas\u0131 uzun vadede talebi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam Fed\u2019i frenliyor. Sonu\u00e7: bant hareketi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131kta opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46456\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}