Alt\u0131n, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimle bir miktar y\u00fckseldi. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki askeri t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 talep, g\u00fcvenli liman (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, nisan ay\u0131nda da alt\u0131n rezervlerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste 18. al\u0131m ay\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), resmi alt\u0131n rezervlerini 260 bin troy ons (k\u0131ymetli metallerde kullan\u0131lan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi) yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 ton art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu, son bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k al\u0131m ve Aral\u0131k 2024\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu al\u0131mlar, \u00c7in\u2019in rezervlerini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme ve ABD Hazine tahvillerindeki (ABD devlet bor\u00e7lanma senedi) pay\u0131n\u0131 azaltma hamlesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 desteklerken, \u00f6rne\u011fin T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 gibi baz\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar son d\u00f6nemde yerel para birimini (\u00fclke i\u00e7i para) desteklemek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f, y\u00fcksek reel getiriler (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz\/ getiri) ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gidece\u011fi beklentisi de zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, 2025 boyunca g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi iki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kal\u0131c\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 talebi\u2014\u00f6zellikle \u00c7in\u2019den gelen\u2014fiyatlarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. \u00c7in\u2019in ABD Hazine tahvillerinden stratejik uzakla\u015fmas\u0131yla gelen bu yap\u0131sal (kal\u0131c\u0131) al\u0131mlar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde piyasadaki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri bu e\u011filimi do\u011fruluyor: Merkez bankalar\u0131 toplamda k\u00fcresel rezervlere 250 ton daha ekledi. Bu birikim, talebin uzun vadeli bir unsur oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve piyasaya s\u00fcrekli bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, agresif k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynayan sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler) daha riskli hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan s\u0131k\u0131 makro ortam (faiz, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon ko\u015fullar\u0131) gev\u015feme sinyali veriyor. Nisan 2026 enflasyonunun %2,9 ile biraz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi sonras\u0131, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirebilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. Bu nedenle Dolar Endeksi (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) son zirvelerinden gerileyerek 104,5 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla y\u00fckseli\u015fin daha az s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u201ccall spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma stratejisi) kullanmak; riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve prim maliyetini (opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) y\u00f6netmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygun bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma gerektirmeden olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca 2018 sonundaki \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc hat\u0131rlamak gerekir: Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara vermesi, 2019\u2019daki faiz indirimlerine zemin haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f ve alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli (h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6rt\u00fcl\u00fc volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) \u015fu anda orta seviyede oldu\u011fundan, daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak cazip olabilir. Fed\u2019in net bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimi (faiz y\u00f6n\u00fcnde belirgin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) sinyali vermesi halinde daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketine pozisyon almaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 18. ay \u00fcst \u00fcste al\u0131mla (8 ton) fiyat\u0131 desteklerken, ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rd\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\/reel faiz fren, Fed indirimi umudu yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46455\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}