\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi, \u0130ran resmi medyas\u0131 ve Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD donanmas\u0131n\u0131n iki \u0130ran tankerine y\u00f6nelik eylemlerini k\u0131nad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Araghchi, bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131 sald\u0131rgan eylemler ve ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurma anla\u015fmas\u0131) ihlali olarak niteledi.<\/p>\n
Araghchi, diplomatik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ortaya konuldu\u011funda ABD\u2019nin askeri se\u00e7ene\u011fi tercih etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n bask\u0131ya boyun e\u011fmeyece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Araghchi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n f\u00fcze stoklar\u0131 ve f\u0131rlat\u0131c\u0131 kapasitesinin 28 \u015eubat\u2019a k\u0131yasla %75 seviyesinde oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki iddiay\u0131 reddetti. Do\u011fru rakam\u0131n %120 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, a\u00e7\u0131klamalara anl\u0131k bir tepki vermedi; k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fu an bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u201csiyasi g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc\u201d (fiyatlamaya etki etmeyen g\u00fcndelik siyasi haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) olarak g\u00f6rmezden geliyor. Ancak bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik riskin yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; \u00f6zellikle tankerler i\u00e7in do\u011frudan tehdit varken. ABD donanmas\u0131ndan gelecek somut bir hamle, h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert bir t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
En yak\u0131n risk k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131nda. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda arz endi\u015feleriyle Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131n (ileride teslim edilecek petrol i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat belirleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %30\u2019dan fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; mevcut durum daha da do\u011frudan. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in Brent veya WTI\u2019da \u201czarar yazd\u0131rma ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran, ancak mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 seviyeden hak veren opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir pozisyon alma yoludur.<\/p>\n
Gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131rsa sadece petrol piyasas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaz. 2025\u2019te ge\u00e7en y\u0131l K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nde (VIX: piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel hisselerde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) hisse portf\u00f6ylerini VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla veya endeks sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (index put: endeks d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) korumak, ilk ciddi olaydan sonra \u00e7ok daha pahal\u0131 hale gelmeden \u00f6nce daha uygun maliyetli olabilir.<\/p>\n
F\u00fcze kapasitesinin %120 oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131, sadece s\u00f6ylem de\u011fil; niyet ve kapasite sinyali olarak okunmal\u0131. Bu, misilleme e\u015fi\u011finin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; yani herhangi bir olay piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir. Bu da S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde \u201ckoruma\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta niteli\u011finde pozisyon) almay\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda gerilim artarsa sermaye \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klara kayma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar risk azalt\u0131rken (de-risk: daha oynak varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131karak riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle ABD Dolar Endeksi t\u00fcrevleri (kur hareketlerine dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 etkili bir dengeleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tahran, ABD\u2019nin iki \u0130ran tankerine m\u00fcdahalesini \u201cate\u015fkes ihlali\u201d diye k\u0131nad\u0131; piyasalar sessiz. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz (%21 arz) riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: petrol, VIX ve endeks korumas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46454\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}