G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi; ons ba\u015f\u0131na 80,85 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %3,15 art\u0131da kald\u0131. Hareket, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki (USD) yeniden zay\u0131flama ve ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu \u00f6ncesindeki temkinli duru\u015fun ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 iddialar\u0131na ra\u011fmen geriledi. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019yi petrol tankerlerini ve sivil b\u00f6lgeleri hedef almakla su\u00e7lad\u0131. ABD ise donanma unsurlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 bildirildi\u011fini duyurdu.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan metallerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f) al\u0131m\u0131 destekleme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Nisan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi var. Beklentiler, Nisan\u2019da 62 bin yeni istihdam yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; Mart\u2019taki 178 bine g\u00f6re belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfusta i\u015f arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde i\u015f bulamayanlar\u0131n oran\u0131) i\u00e7in %4,3 tahmini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar\u2019\u0131n (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131; enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ve talep g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren \u00fccret g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; \u00f6nceki %3,5 seviyesine k\u0131yasla. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyatlamas\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca faiz oranlar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131, arz, geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve elektronik ile g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi gibi sanayi kullan\u0131m\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen 62 binin alt\u0131nda kalacak zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi olabilece\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. 2025 boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyallerin, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klara (faiz kuponu olmayan; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi) ilgiyi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu e\u011filim, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7larla (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlar gibi) uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha cazip k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, 2024\u2019te g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi ve elektronik sekt\u00f6rlerinden gelen sanayi t\u00fcketiminin rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmi\u015fti; bu e\u011filimin 2026\u2019ya girerken h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Bu durum fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturabilir; k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 realize etme) yarataca\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilim de fiyata \u00f6nemli bir risk primi (belirsizlik artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerine eklenen \u201cek bedel\u201d) ekliyor. Bu jeopolitik belirsizlik, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek tutabilir; bu da opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun pe\u015fin bedeli) pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in \u201cspread\u201d (ayn\u0131 varl\u0131kta farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\/vadede opsiyonlar\u0131 birlikte kullanma) stratejilerini; \u00f6rne\u011fin y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m spread\u2019ini (bull call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131 (alt\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc; g\u00f6reli pahal\u0131\/ucuzlu\u011fu g\u00f6sterir) yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Alt\u0131n 4.000 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken oran 49\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131yor; tarihsel olarak bu seviye, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na g\u00f6re pahalan\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret edebiliyor. Bu da yukar\u0131 trend s\u00fcrse bile disiplinli kalmak ve y\u00fckseli\u015fin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nma (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f) belirtileri verip vermedi\u011fini takip etmek gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f %3,15 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, 80,85 dolarda! Zay\u0131flayan dolar ve NFP \u00f6ncesi temkin fiyat\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi risk primi eklerken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck istihdam Fed indirimi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46452\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}