Brent petrol\u00fc, Washington\u2019dan gelen sava\u015fla ilgili mesajlar\u0131n s\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve piyasadaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likiditeye (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131n az olmas\u0131, bu y\u00fczden fiyat\u0131n kolay s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131) ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak sert hareketler yapt\u0131. Brent \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolara indi, ard\u0131ndan 102 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; vadeli kontratlar (belirli bir tarihte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) daha sonra 100,2 dolardayd\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce ise 115 dolar seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Reuters, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ve sonras\u0131nda fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri gelirken, beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201c\u015f\u00fcpheli i\u015flem\u201d hareketleri (ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 yo\u011funlukta al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131. Bu i\u015flemlerin toplam\u0131 Mart ve Nisan boyunca yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite, piyasada aktif i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirildi. Kalan i\u015flemlerin \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 algoritmik i\u015flemler (bilgisayar programlar\u0131n\u0131n otomatik al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) ve petrol \u00fcreticileri yapt\u0131. Fiyat tepkilerinin, s\u0131k ve zaman zaman birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen resmi sinyallere kar\u015f\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hassas oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Bir anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131nda var\u0131labilece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201ctek sayfal\u0131k\u201d ABD \u00f6nerisini reddetmesi halinde bombalama tehdidi gelmesi tansiyonu yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131. Di\u011fer geli\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in \u201cPersian Gulf Strait Authority\u201d \u00fczerinden zorunlu ba\u015fvuru \u015fart\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin, K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki \u00fcs ve hava sahas\u0131na yeniden eri\u015fim sonras\u0131 ticari gemilere H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de refakat etmek i\u00e7in Project Freedom\u2019\u0131 (ticari gemilere askeri refakat plan\u0131) yeniden devreye alabilece\u011fi iddialar\u0131 yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer haberlerde, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde \u0130ran, ABD ve BAE\u2019yi i\u00e7eren yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lardan s\u00f6z edildi. Trump, ABC News\u2019e ate\u015fkesin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durdurulmas\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Bloomberg\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Press TV kanal\u0131 ise ate\u015fkesin ihlal edildi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da benzer \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7ok sert fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi) g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; \u00e7eli\u015fkili man\u015fetlerle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bir g\u00fcnde neredeyse %10 dalgalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Likiditenin zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu bu ortamda opsiyon primleri (opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) y\u00fckseliyor, ancak h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert hareketlerle k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede k\u00e2r f\u0131rsat\u0131 da do\u011fabiliyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde i\u015flem yapanlar) bu tablonun yak\u0131n vadede s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat hareketi, ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik \u015foklara benziyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) (petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks; \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d gibi izlenir) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fgali sonras\u0131nda da b\u00f6yle olmu\u015ftu. Bu, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle ilgili her haberde fiyat\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 tepki verme riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
115 dolardan ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f erken kabul edildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirlenen fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesiyle gelebilecek ani y\u00fckseli\u015flerden yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar; en fazla kay\u0131p, \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu, duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n) aniden de\u011fi\u015febildi\u011fi bir piyasada y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu daha kontroll\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131maya yarar.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki fiziksel risk, fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin bu dar ge\u00e7itten (chokepoint; arz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilen stratejik bo\u011faz) ge\u00e7ti\u011fini d\u00fczenli olarak raporluyor. Bu temel arz riskinin tam bir fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc engelleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u201czarar durdurma\u201d de\u011fil, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put; mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f opsiyonu) sat\u0131p prim toplayabilir.<\/p>\n
2026 May\u0131s-Haziran d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kuzey Yar\u0131mk\u00fcre\u2019de yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu (tatil ve seyahatle yak\u0131t t\u00fcketiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) ba\u015fl\u0131yor; bu da genelde ham petrol talebini destekler. Mevsimsel destek ve s\u00fcren jeopolitik risk birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften \u00e7ok ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bo\u011fa call spread (y\u00fckseli\u015f spread\u2019i; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satma) stratejisi, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc hedeflerken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131p ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Brent\u2019te man\u015fet-ter\u00f6r\u00fc: Washington mesajlar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite petrol\u00fc z\u0131plat\u0131yor. Fiyat 93\u2019ten 102\u2019ye f\u0131rlad\u0131, 100,2\u2019de denge ar\u0131yor; \u015f\u00fcpheli i\u015flemler Mart-Nisan 7 milyar dolar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46449\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}