ABD Dolar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hafif geriledi ve haftay\u0131 neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmeden kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. USD\/JPY, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi \u015f\u00fcphesi sonras\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc iki ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n dip seviyelerden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 157,00\u2019nin alt\u0131nda duraklad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6vizden sorumlu \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkilisi Atsushi Mimura, Yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir s\u0131n\u0131r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019li yetkililerle her g\u00fcn temas halinde oldu\u011funu ve k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat odakl\u0131 hareketleri (spek\u00fclatif i\u015flemler) s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, 30 Nisan\u2019da paritenin 160,00 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 400 pipten (d\u00f6viz kurunda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; JPY\u2019de genelde 0,01 yen) fazla geriledi. Reuters, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bu hamle i\u00e7in 5 trilyon yenden (32 milyar dolar) fazla harcam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131; piyasa hareketleri, bu hafta daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u015flemlerin (m\u00fcdahalelerin) de gelmi\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Japon Yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratan unsurlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kamu maliyesine (b\u00fct\u00e7e ve bor\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler de etkili oldu. Dolar ise Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin artmas\u0131yla \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinden (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) destek buldu.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler ayr\u0131ca 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisindeydi (tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hari\u00e7 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi; ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ana g\u00f6stergelerinden). Tahminler, Nisan\u2019da 62 bin art\u0131\u015f, Mart\u2019ta ise 178 bin art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en ADP verisinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir sonu\u00e7 ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
Temel sorun, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck olmas\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in politika faizini %3,0\u2019te tutarken, Nisan enflasyonu %3,1 oldu. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,25\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltti. Bu fark, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek getiri aramay\u0131 (carry trade: yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolar alma stratejisi) cazip ama riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ya\u015fanan ani 400 piplik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erdi\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bu durum fiyatlara da yans\u0131yor: Bir ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 seviyesinde ve bu, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir y\u00fcksek prim. Bu da piyasan\u0131n Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek s\u00fcrpriz bir hamle riskini s\u00fcrekli fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve do\u011frudan y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha riskli hale getirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, m\u00fcdahale riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar; \u00f6r. opsiyon) kullanmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uzun vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n almak daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. B\u00f6ylece yenin temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 korunurken, olas\u0131 zarar opsiyon primiyle (opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r; yetkililer yeni bir sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yarat\u0131rsa risk kontrol alt\u0131nda kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in \u201cu\u00e7 risk\u201d (tail risk: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama b\u00fcy\u00fck etkili hareket) korunmas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir. Ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta amac\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan, \u015fu an i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da kalan opsiyon) al\u0131nabilir. Oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti artar; ancak 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen t\u00fcrden ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 157 alt\u0131nda soluklan\u0131yor: Tokyo\u2019dan m\u00fcdahale sinyalleri, 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnden 400 pip geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi tetikledi. Fed\u2013BOJ faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i beslerken, NFP g\u00fcndemde; opsiyonla risk y\u00f6netimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46447\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}