ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP), i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verileri bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasada pozisyonlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda net \u201cuzun\u201d (yani dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc). Ancak bu pozisyonlanma \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,00 civar\u0131nda tutunurken, son spot (anl\u0131k) fiyat hareketleri, pozisyonlar\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi, nisan istihdam verisinin piyasa beklentisi olan +65 binin \u00fczerinde gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130lk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 nisanda ortalama 203 bin seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; marttaki 209 bine g\u00f6re geriledi. ADP raporu (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en bir g\u00f6sterge) da \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
ISM hizmetler istihdam endeksi 45,2\u2019den 48,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu veriler, NFP sonucunda risk dengesinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD faiz beklentilerinin (piyasan\u0131n faizlerin nereye gidece\u011fine dair fiyatlamas\u0131) sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 kaymas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Bu durum, veri sonras\u0131 dolardaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve DXY\u2019nin hareketini mevcut seviyelere yak\u0131n tutabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, dolarda uzun pozisyonun \u201ckalabal\u0131k\u201d i\u015flem olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev (opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fcce oynayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: cari fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan) al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak, prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelir) toplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201ctavan\u201d beklentisinin ana nedeni, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) temkinli duru\u015fu. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verilerine ra\u011fmen, ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sinyali vermekte isteksiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8\u2019e do\u011fru \u0131l\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, Fed\u2019in yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesi i\u00e7in e\u015fik olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, k\u0131sa oynakl\u0131k (short volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen) stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201ck\u0131sa strangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu hem paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) stratejisi, DXY\u2019nin belirli bir bantta kalmas\u0131ndan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler bug\u00fcn ABD NFP, i\u015fsizlik ve \u00fccret verilerinde: g\u00f6stergeler +65 binin \u00fcst\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. DXY 98\u2019de tutunuyor; ancak Fed temkini y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenleyebilir, bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}