ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasalar veri \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda net \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (dolar\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fi beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) biriktirdi. Ancak bu pozisyonlanma \u015fimdilik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,00 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor. Anl\u0131k fiyat hareketi, pozisyonlanman\u0131n ima etti\u011fine g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok istihdam g\u00f6stergesi, nisan ay\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n +65 binlik piyasa beklentisinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fini kaybedenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular) nisan ay\u0131nda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k 203 bine indi; martta 209 bindi.<\/p>\n
ADP verisi (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge), \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. ISM hizmetler istihdam endeksi (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131 izleyen anket g\u00f6stergesi) 45,2\u2019den 48,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
NFP beklentileri a\u015fsa bile, ABD faiz beklentilerinde (piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faizleri nereye ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131na dair fiyatlamas\u0131) sert bir yukar\u0131 revizyon beklenmiyor. Bu da dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve DXY\u2019yi mevcut seviyelerine yak\u0131n tutabilir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan NFP raporu \u00f6ncesinde, risklerin ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son g\u00f6stergeler, +185 binlik beklentiden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sonuca i\u015faret ediyor; bu da Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) 104,50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Piyasada dolar lehine pozisyonlanma var, ancak hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler de bug\u00fcnk\u00fc verinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelebilece\u011fi senaryosunu destekliyor. D\u00fcnk\u00fc ADP raporu, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 +195 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Son ISM hizmetler istihdam endeksi 50,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek yeniden geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7ti (50\u2019nin \u00fczeri sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir). Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 da nisan boyunca ortalama 215 bin civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle birlikte, k\u0131sa vadeli ABD dolar\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) satmak veya \u201cbear call spread\u201d kurmak (\u00fcst \u00fcste iki call opsiyonu kullanarak, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryoya g\u00f6re yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lan strateji) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir strateji olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, NFP sonras\u0131 dolarda olas\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler; ancak bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. Tahsil edilen prim (opsiyon geliri), dolar yatay kal\u0131rsa veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirse tampon sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in mevcut duru\u015fu, faiz beklentilerinde h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 e\u011filimi) bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. 2025 sonbahar\u0131nda beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen istihdam verileri, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Ancak Fed\u2019in 2026 boyunca verdi\u011fi mesajlar, ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya daha sert para politikas\u0131) i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131tay\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler bug\u00fcn NFP\u2019de: Piyasa dolar long\u2019ta ama a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fil. \u00d6nc\u00fc veriler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdama i\u015faret ediyor; DXY 104,50 \u00fcst\u00fc test edebilir. Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46436\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}