WTI **vadeli i\u015flemleri** (ileriki bir tarihte belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledikten sonra yeniden 93 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent 95 dolara do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle (seans i\u00e7inde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi) 100 dolara toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki kay\u0131plar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 14 maddelik ABD ate\u015fkes teklifine Pakistanl\u0131 arabulucular \u00fczerinden yak\u0131nda yan\u0131t vermeye yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Plan, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek ve 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir m\u00fczakere d\u00f6nemini ba\u015flatacak tek sayfal\u0131k bir muht\u0131ra (resm\u00ee \u00e7er\u00e7eve metni). Bu d\u00f6nemde **n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirme** (uranyumun yak\u0131t ama\u00e7l\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131), dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131 (eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f para ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fcvenlik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclecek.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump gece boyunca \u201c\u00e7ok iyi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden\u201d s\u00f6z ederken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uymamas\u0131 halinde \u201c\u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey ve \u015fiddette\u201d sald\u0131r\u0131lar uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da yapt\u0131. \u0130ran, ilerlemeyi ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011flarken, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015finin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201cyeni prosed\u00fcrlerine\u201d tabi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Maersk, ABD bayrakl\u0131 gemilerinden birinin ABD Donanmas\u0131 refakatiyle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Project Freedom refakatlerinin Pakistan ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n talebiyle duraklat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilirken, \u0130ran\u2019a giden gemilere y\u00f6nelik ABD ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de benzin fiyatlar\u0131 galon ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,54 dolar seviyesinde; bu, Temmuz 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. QatarEnergy\u2019nin LNG\u2019de **m\u00fccbir sebep** ilan\u0131 (\u015firketin kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olaylar nedeniyle teslimat\/taahh\u00fctlerin ge\u00e7ici olarak ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131) ve b\u00f6lgesel enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131ndaki hasar geride kalm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 hareketi (piyasay\u0131 ters y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekip sonra h\u0131zla d\u00f6nmesi) hat\u0131rlatan bir tablo var. Karadeniz tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair man\u015fetler g\u00fcn i\u00e7i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yaratsa da, **fiziki piyasa** (ger\u00e7ek teslimata dayal\u0131 petrol ticareti) arz\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutunmakta zorlan\u0131rken, duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa (haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na) ba\u011fl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Temel dinamikler (arz-talep dengesi) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyecek \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. OPEC+ \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5,5 milyon varillik \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeni teyit etti; bu da k\u0131sa vadede arz taraf\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu hafta ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 4 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (stok azalmas\u0131) bildirdi; stoklar be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n daha da alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
Talep taraf\u0131nda, yava\u015flama endi\u015feleri abart\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 11,5 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini ve 2026 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nceki karamsar tahminlere meydan okudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131 talep, yaln\u0131zca diplomasi s\u00f6ylemiyle k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 zor bir fiyat taban\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler **al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131** olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclerek **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) tercih edilebilir. **Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite)** (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 muhtemel; bu nedenle ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde **zarar-kesin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put)** satmak (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da olan sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 satmak) da **prim** (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplamak i\u00e7in etkili bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. 2025\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak mesaj net: Kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayan man\u015fetlere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, fiziki piyasa sonunda belirleyici olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: WTI 90 alt\u0131ndan 93+\u2019e, Brent 100\u2019e toparland\u0131. \u0130ran-ABD ate\u015fkes sinyali H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmedi; arz s\u0131k\u0131. OPEC+ kesinti, stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, \u00c7in talebi; geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46418\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}