Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimlerin etkisiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 toparlan\u0131nca, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc erken y\u00fckseli\u015finin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Ons alt\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 4.764 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.712 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, k\u00fcresel petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (d\u00fcnya genelinde ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kullanan gemiler i\u00e7in yeni kurallar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Haberlere g\u00f6re ticari gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015fini \u0130ran askeri makamlar\u0131yla koordine etmesi isteniyor; \u00f6nceki baz\u0131 haberlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyon dolar seviyesinde olas\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretlerinden s\u00f6z edilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Tahran, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik ABD destekli bir \u00f6neriyi de\u011ferlendiriyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, son 24 saatteki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201c\u00e7ok iyi\u201d ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201colduk\u00e7a m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) yetkilileri, faiz indirimi i\u00e7in acele etmediklerini belirtti. Boston Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Susan Collins, faizlerin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre\u201d sabit kalmas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme ihtimalinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da olas\u0131 bir senaryo oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri, 2 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten hafta i\u00e7in \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi i\u00e7in ilk kez yap\u0131lan ba\u015fvurular) 200 bin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; \u00f6nceki 190 binden y\u00fckseldi ve 205 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (\u00f6zel \u015firketlerin istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) Nisan\u2019da 109 bin artt\u0131; Mart\u2019taki 61 binin \u00fczerinde ve 99 bin beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu veri, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) raporu \u00f6ncesinde yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA: fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) 4.307 dolar civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Ancak 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.774 dolar ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.790 dolar seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 53 civar\u0131nda, ADX (trend g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi: trendin ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7er) 21 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.774, 4.790 ve 4.850 dolar; destek seviyeleri 4.500 ve 4.307 dolar.<\/p>\n
Piyasada jeopolitik riskler ile para politikas\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) aras\u0131nda klasik bir \u00e7eki\u015fme var; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131 dar bir bantta tutuyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tansiyon y\u00fcksekken \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) belirgin. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma duru\u015fu alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 unsuru. Bu nedenle vadeli i\u015flemlerle (futures: gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) do\u011frudan uzun ya da k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 bahis) almak k\u0131sa vadede daha riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Daha uygun yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011fa (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar sert dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) odaklanmak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak NFP verisi \u00f6ncesinde. \u0130stihdam verisinin beklentiyi \u00e7ok a\u015fmas\u0131 ya da \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131 mevcut yatay seyrinden \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Uzun straddle gibi opsiyon stratejileri (opsiyon: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma ya da satma hakk\u0131; straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketinden faydalanabilir. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) yakla\u015f\u0131k %18 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durum, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin ana tetikleyicisi. Bo\u011faz, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini kontrol ediyor. 2023 sonu ve 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz aksamalar\u0131nda benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sigortas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bir s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n fiilen ge\u00e7i\u015fi aksatmas\u0131 ya da \u00fccret uygulamas\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131 4.850 dolardaki diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tutumu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) hafife al\u0131nmamal\u0131; yetkililer enflasyonun yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) 2024 ve 2025 boyunca %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmakta \u0131srarc\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 4.500 dolardaki deste\u011fe do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131t etkiler nedeniyle, riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Net bir sinyal gelene kadar fiyat\u0131n aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, 4.500\u20134.850 band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na gelecek kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla iron condor sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (aral\u0131kta kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, risk s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 belirli opsiyon stratejisi) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir tetikleyici olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, yatay seyirden \u00e7ok olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rlanmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 desteklerken dolar-petrol toparlanmas\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. G\u00f6zler NFP\u2019de; Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi bask\u0131, 4.774-4.850 diren\u00e7, 4.500 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46413","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46413"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46413\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46413"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46413"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46413"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}