ABD\u2019de d\u00fczenlenen son 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu (Treasury bill, k\u0131sa vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma senedi) ihalesinde getiri %3,61 oldu. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki ihaledeki %3,60 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fim 0,01 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu ihaleyle, ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin d\u00f6rt hafta vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi belirleniyor.<\/p>\n
4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu getirisindeki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, piyasan\u0131n \u00e7ok yak\u0131n vadede biraz daha y\u00fcksek faizleri fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti, baz\u0131 beklentilerin aksine h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerinin beklenenden daha ge\u00e7 gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hareket, son a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerle de destekleniyor. Ge\u00e7en ayki \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak hesaplanan fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Nisan ay\u0131 istihdam raporunun 180 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 210 bin yeni i\u015f g\u00f6stermesi de Fed\u2019in acele etmemesine alan tan\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr verilerle Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) gev\u015fetmesi i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz, d\u00f6viz veya emtia olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) taraf\u0131nda ise yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi fiyatlayan k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan ileri tarihli kontratlar) daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geliyor. Fed politika faizinin (fed funds rate, bankalar\u0131n gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar yatay ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na oynayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Buna, Eyl\u00fcl 2026 Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen i\u015flem) dahil olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, halihaz\u0131rda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) da etkileyebilir. CBOE Faiz Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (SRVIX, faiz hareketlerindeki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) y\u0131l i\u00e7i diplerine yak\u0131n, 85 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n rehavete yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Faiz beklentilerinin aniden yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan, de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gerektiren opsiyon) almak uygun maliyetli bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu faizi %3,61\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fine i\u015faret. \u00c7ekirdek PCE %2,9 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam Fed indirimlerini \u00f6teleyebilir, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46407\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}