EUR\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde %0,2 y\u00fckseldi ve piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131) etkisiyle gelen toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu hareket, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Haziran ay\u0131 ECB faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in 19 baz puan (bp; faizde y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani 0,01%) fiyatl\u0131yor; Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7inse 50 baz puan\u0131n hemen alt\u0131. Almanya fabrika sipari\u015fleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Euro B\u00f6lgesi perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131; ancak genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 ana belirleyici konumunda.<\/p>\n
Grafikte EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini koruyor; 1,16\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131 destek konumunda. Bir sonraki yukar\u0131 seviye 1.1825; bu seviye %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesine (\u00f6nceki fiyat hareketinden hesaplanan teknik e\u015fik) denk geliyor.<\/p>\n
1.1825\u2019in a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, tam geri al\u0131ma (\u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tamamen telafi edilmesi) ve 1,20\u2019nin yeniden \u00fczerine hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Yak\u0131n vadede paritenin 1.1720 ile 1.1820 aras\u0131nda yatay bantta (dar aral\u0131kta ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn piyasaya y\u00f6n veren unsur piyasa havas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, son bir y\u0131lda belirginle\u015fen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %1,9\u2019a gerilerken Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalan ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) \u2014son olarak %3,1\u2014 nedeniyle Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel tablo, Euro\u2019nun zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Mevcut 1.1200 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonda al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 fiyat) EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, 1.1000\u2019deki psikolojik deste\u011fe (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nem verdi\u011fi yuvarlak seviye) do\u011fru olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (defined-risk; maksimum zarar ba\u015ftan belli) pozisyon almak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu, ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (interest rate differential; iki b\u00f6lgenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki makas) dolar lehine a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenti) orta seviyedeyken, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money; mevcut fiyattan uzakta) al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i satmak (call spread; bir al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131p ba\u015fka bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan alarak risk\/geliri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak) da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in etkili olabilir. 1.1350 direnci etraf\u0131nda bir tavan belirlemek, prim (premium; opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan elde edilen gelir) toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flarken pariteye dair d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yataya bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde beklenen yatay seyrin de\u011ferlendirilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha temkinli bir yol olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla %0,2 y\u00fckseldi; ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Teknikte 1.1720-1.1820 bant, 1.1825 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,20 g\u00fcndemde. Fed-ECB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 euro aleyhine; put ve call-spread stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46406\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}