USD\/CHF Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7766 civar\u0131na gerileyerek 10 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte etkili oldu. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair beklentilerin yeniden canlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD destekli bir teklifi inceledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc son 24 saatteki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201c\u00e7ok iyi\u201d ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve anla\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Teklif; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirmeyi (uranyumu daha y\u00fcksek safl\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131karma s\u00fcreci) durdurmas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 ve dondurulmu\u015f \u0130ran fonlar\u0131ndan milyarlarca ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Ayr\u0131ca iki taraf\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki ablukay\u0131 sona erdirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131. DXY, dolar\u0131n alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en bir endekstir. Endeks 97,88 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,15 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) olas\u0131 faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak Fed \u00fczerindeki faiz art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, faizlerin \u201cuzun bir s\u00fcre\u201d sabit kalabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve fazla faiz indiriminin enflasyonu yeniden y\u00fckseltebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (ilk kez i\u015fsizlik yard\u0131m\u0131 talebi) 2 May\u0131s ile biten haftada 190 binden 200 bine y\u00fckseldi; beklenti 205 bindi. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (Mart\u2019ta %0,3\u2019t\u00fc); ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,3 oldu. Buna ra\u011fmen oran, SNB\u2019nin (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) %2 hedefinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran\u2019da olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fma ihtimali USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu ortam, \u00f6zellikle 0,7766\u2019daki son dip seviyenin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun \u00f6nceden belirlenen al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m seviyesi) USD\/CHF sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) daha cazip hale getiriyor. Bu hareket, 2025\u2019te gerilimin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde paritenin 0,9000 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7teki y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri veriyor.<\/p>\n
Durum h\u00e2l\u00e2 net de\u011fil; haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 iki y\u00f6ne de sert bi\u00e7imde itebilir. Bu nedenle, fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) veya strangle (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) gibi yap\u0131lar, anla\u015fma olur ya da bozulursa b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynar. Son bir haftada b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerinde ima edilen volatilite (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek faiz e\u011filimi) kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini azalt\u0131yor. Yar\u0131nki Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi \u00f6ncesinde, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarla sonuca g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisi, dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rarak USD\/CHF\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekleyebilir. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 (futures: gelecekteki fiyat \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren kontratlar) y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na indiriyor; bu, ge\u00e7en ay fiyatlanan yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, SNB\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimine ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u0131cak bakmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. USD\/CHF 0,7700 seviyesinin alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, SNB m\u00fcdahalesi (piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m\u0131yla etki etme) riski artar. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 \u201czarar durdurma\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilecek \u015fekilde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n uza\u011f\u0131nda) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) korumak daha temkinli olabilir. 2015\u2019te SNB\u2019nin Euro\u2019ya sabit kur benzeri uygulamay\u0131 (Euro peg: EUR\/CHF i\u00e7in taban seviye) b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla ya\u015fanan piyasa \u015foku, banka a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde sert ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler USD\/CHF\u2019de: Parite 0,7766\u2019ya inerek 10 Mart\u2019tan beri dip g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fma beklentisi petrol\u00fc ve dolar\u0131 bask\u0131larken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc frank d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc derinle\u015ftiriyor; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46403\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}