H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksama, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 9\u201310 milyon varilin \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Brent petrol 100 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; metinde 103 dolar\/varil seviyesi de an\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde Brent\u2019in 150 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Metne g\u00f6re bo\u011faz neredeyse ge\u00e7ilemez durumda ve azalan ak\u0131\u015f devam ederse yaz aylar\u0131na do\u011fru arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 geli\u015febilir. Ayr\u0131ca daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n; K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinden temin edilen enerji, g\u00fcbre ve di\u011fer \u00fcretim girdilerinin maliyetini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, buna ek olarak ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve tedarik hatt\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 (lojistik k\u0131s\u0131tlar: sevkiyat kapasitesi, rota ve liman darbo\u011fazlar\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Metin, petrol ve girdi fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131) yukar\u0131 itece\u011fini ve yaz aylar\u0131na do\u011fru stagflasyon (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) riskini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. Enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesinin ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d ya da \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d \u00e7izgiye (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma\/economiyi frenleme) itebilece\u011fi; bunun da alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Buradaki \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti (carry)\u201d ve \u201cf\u0131rsat maliyeti\u201d daha basit ifadeyle \u015funu anlat\u0131r: Faizler y\u00fckselince, faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131klarda (alt\u0131n gibi) beklemek daha az cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n
Washington ve Tahran\u2019dan gelen sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasitesiyle ilgili durum; ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede tamamen normale d\u00f6nmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131ran unsurlar olarak say\u0131l\u0131yor. WTI\u2019\u0131n (ABD tipi ham petrol) yak\u0131n zamanda 100 dolar\/varilin alt\u0131na indi\u011fi, ancak petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131; sava\u015f sonras\u0131 olu\u015fan arz a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n petrol\u00fc bir s\u00fcre 100 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda tutabilece\u011fi de ekleniyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 kal\u0131rken, piyasadan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 9\u201310 milyon varillik \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz kesintisi ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Bu tablo, halen varil ba\u015f\u0131na 103 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Brent\u2019in yaz aylar\u0131nda 150 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerindeki yeni bir banda y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Metin, \u201ct\u00fcrev\u201d i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (t\u00fcrev: fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiziki k\u0131tl\u0131k (ger\u00e7ek petrol bulunabilirli\u011finde azalma) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 savunuluyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verilerinin bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekledi\u011fi; ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n son haftal\u0131k veride 4,5 milyon varilden fazla azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun beklentiden daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda OPEC+ g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u201cyedek \u00fcretim kapasitesini\u201d (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede devreye al\u0131nabilecek ek \u00fcretim) kullanmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck net bir plan olmadan bitti\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu unsurlar\u0131n, petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (vadeli i\u015flem: belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) veya al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131nmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u015firketler i\u00e7in h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen girdi maliyetleri ile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha az destekleyici bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7mesi, ekonomi i\u00e7in zor bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Bu stagflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi ve hisse endeksleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor; enerji kaynakl\u0131 riskler b\u00fcy\u00fcrken hisse piyasas\u0131nda temkinli hatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fi s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019deki jeopolitik \u015foklar sonras\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyonu besledi\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Mevcut arz kesintisinin daha do\u011frudan ve miktar olarak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu; bu nedenle fiyat etkisinin o d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha sert ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiril\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden petrol\u00fcn uzun s\u00fcre 100 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon alman\u0131n daha makul oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) kararlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Metin, Fed\u2019in y\u00fckselen enflasyon beklentileriyle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in n\u00f6tr hatta s\u0131k\u0131 bir e\u011filimi (faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek yerine y\u00fcksek tutma) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorunda kalabilece\u011fi riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn faiz piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanma (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) yarataca\u011f\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n buna g\u00f6re pozisyon alabilece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de t\u0131kanma g\u00fcnl\u00fck 9\u201310 milyon varil arz\u0131 kesti: Brent 100\u2013103 dolarda, k\u0131s\u0131t s\u00fcrerse 150+ senaryosu masada. Enflasyon\/stagflasyon riski, Fed\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131 tutabilir; hisseler bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46397\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}