ABD\u2019de birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,3 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki %4,4 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti, bir birim \u00fcr\u00fcn ya da hizmet \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in gereken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc giderini \u00f6l\u00e7er. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re \u00fccret ve i\u015f\u00e7ilik kaynakl\u0131 maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha yava\u015f artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetlerinin %2,3\u2019e gerilemesi, enflasyonun yava\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundaki %4,4\u2019ten bu seviyeye inmesi, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u00e7ekindi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyona d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riskinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, Fed\u2019e daha fazla hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011flarken yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 da zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir bak\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. (G\u00fcvercin: Faiz indirimi gibi daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan yakla\u015f\u0131m.) Bu veri \u00f6ncesinde, federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) eyl\u00fcle kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %35 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yordu; bu oran\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na damga vuran \u201c\u015fahin\u201d s\u00f6ylemden (\u015fahin: daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz vurgusu) belirgin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede odak, faiz t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde; \u00f6zellikle Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine yaz\u0131lan opsiyonlarda. (T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal \u00fcr\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme. Opsiyon: belirli bir fiyattan alma ya da satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme. Vadeli i\u015flem: ileri bir tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc.) Fed politikas\u0131na \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131 olan 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvili \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; getirilerin (faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n) daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi ise bu sabah %3,75\u2019e geriledi; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn %3,5 seviyesine do\u011fru s\u00fcrmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, hisse senedi endeksleri i\u00e7in olumlu. Bu nedenle S&P 500 ve faize daha duyarl\u0131 Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (call opsiyon: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetleri \u015firket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (sat\u0131\u015ftan kalan k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131) do\u011frudan art\u0131r\u0131r. FactSet verilerine g\u00f6re marjlar son iki \u00e7eyrekte bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 2019\u2019a bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer \u015fekilde i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem, marjlar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla hisse senetlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rapordaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizliklerden birinin ortadan kalkmas\u0131 nedeniyle oynakl\u0131kta (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n dalgalanma \u015fiddeti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 17 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; Fed\u2019in yol haritas\u0131 daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir hale geldik\u00e7e 14 seviyesine do\u011fru gerilemesi bekleniyor. VIX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i satmak gibi (spread: ayn\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnde farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla yap\u0131lan kombine opsiyon i\u015flemi) stratejilerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyeti 1\u00c7\u2019te %2,3\u2019e inerek \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Enflasyon endi\u015fesi azal\u0131rken Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmesi, tahvil getirilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve hisse\/opisyonda al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 do\u011furuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46396\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}