ABD\u2019de ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten haftada 203,25 bine geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde 207,5 bin d\u00fczeyindeydi.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n 203.250\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u201cfaizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131\u201d beklentisi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler, Nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren en temel enflasyon verisi) %3,1 ile beklentilerin biraz \u00fczerinde gelmesi nedeniyle daha da \u00f6nemli. \u0130stihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, 2023 sonundaki en s\u0131k\u0131 ko\u015fullara yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u201cenflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli taraf\u0131nda (yield curve: devlet tahvillerinde vade uzad\u0131k\u00e7a faizlerin nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steren e\u011fri; \u201ck\u0131sa u\u00e7\u201d k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil faizleridir) bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faiz indirimlerinin gecikmesinden fayda sa\u011flayabilecek pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (futures: belirli bir tarihte, bug\u00fcnden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapma s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar. Opsiyon stratejileri kapsam\u0131nda, Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak da faizlerin daha da y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: olumsuz fiyat hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 risk azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, y\u00fcksek faizlerin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 Nasdaq 100 gibi endekslerde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir. Ayr\u0131ca VIX\u2019te (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi; korku g\u00f6stergesi) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak, bir sonraki FOMC (Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde dalgal\u0131 piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir pozisyonlanma olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bug\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler, ekonomideki dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n gev\u015feme s\u00fcrecinde (easing: faiz indirimi ve daha destekleyici para politikas\u0131) daha uzun bir beklemeyi zorunlu k\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n yaz aylar\u0131na i\u015faret eden faiz indirimi beklentisi, art\u0131k d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe \u00f6telenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz: ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 4 haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 203,25 bine indi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131; Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi zorla\u015f\u0131yor. \u201cY\u00fcksek faiz uzun s\u00fcre\u201d temas\u0131, tahvil-hisse volatilitesini art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46394\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}