{"id":46393,"date":"2026-05-07T16:55:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T16:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abdde-issizlik-maasi-basvurulari-200-bine-geriledi-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-beklentisi-guclenirken-fed-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-azaldi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T16:55:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T16:55:11","slug":"abdde-issizlik-maasi-basvurulari-200-bine-geriledi-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-beklentisi-guclenirken-fed-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-azaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abdde-issizlik-maasi-basvurulari-200-bine-geriledi-daha-uzun-sure-yuksek-faiz-beklentisi-guclenirken-fed-faiz-indirimi-ihtimali-azaldi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 200 bine geriledi; \u2018daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u2019 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Fed faiz indirimi ihtimali azald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren haftada 200 bin oldu. Beklenti 205 bindi.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 beklentiden 5 bin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck geldi. Bu veri, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131ndaki (i\u015fini kaybedenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek ba\u015fvurular\u0131) de\u011fi\u015fimi izlemek i\u00e7in her hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan g\u00f6stergelerden biri.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131 Sinyali ve Fed Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 200 bin ile beklentiden daha iyi geldi. Bu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d (i\u015f\u00e7i bulman\u0131n zor, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirme ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n) kalabilece\u011fi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n

Bu verinin ard\u0131ndan, Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015faret etti\u011fi temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinden y\u00fczde 35\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (fiyat\u0131 hen\u00fcz k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen, hedef fiyata uzak) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) satmak veya faiz swap\u0131 (sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamak anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n

Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevleri (hisseye dayal\u0131 opsiyon\/vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) taraf\u0131nda, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Nasdaq 100\u2019de olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi) 14 civar\u0131nda; Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede say\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6zler Gelecek Hafta Enflasyon Verisinde<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcm dikkat, gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel enflasyonu) verisine d\u00f6necek. Veri y\u00fcksek gelirse, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fc destekler. B\u00f6yle bir tablo, Fed\u2019in en az\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca faizi sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 200 binle beklentinin alt\u0131na indi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131, Fed\u2019in temmuz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %35\u2019e geriledi. G\u00f6zler nisan T\u00dcFE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46393\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}