Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (NBP), politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Piyasalar, 2026 sonuna kadar ek bir faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
NBP Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Adam Glapi\u0144ski\u2019nin bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi bekleniyor. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6yleminin \u201c\u015fahin\u201de (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na daha istekli) d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmeyece\u011fi var.<\/p>\n
EUR\/PLN geriledi ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle ya\u015fanan sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi (ge\u00e7ici h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131) tersine \u00e7evirerek 4,22 seviyesine do\u011fru ilerliyor. Polonya devlet tahvilleri ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Polonya devlet tahvili faizi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki %4,92 seviyesine g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 baz puan (0,65 y\u00fczde puan) daha y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u00e7erik, yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi.<\/p>\n
NBP politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutuyor ve 2026 sonuna kadar bunun de\u011fi\u015fmesi i\u00e7in bir neden g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Enflasyonun Nisan 2026\u2019da %3,1\u2019e gerilemesi ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu (faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden izleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131) destekliyor. Faizlerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu sakin faiz ortam\u0131 zlotiye destek veriyor; EUR\/PLN daha sessiz bi\u00e7imde 4,22\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Parite, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son gerilimlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi tamamen geri verdi ve para biriminde dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, EUR\/PLN\u2019de oynakl\u0131k \u201csatman\u0131n\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynayan stratejiler) uygulanabilir olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri arama i\u015flemi), merkez bankas\u0131 sakin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda cazibesini koruyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Polonya tahvil piyasas\u0131nda stres s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve farkl\u0131 bir tablo ortaya koyuyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,57 seviyesinde tak\u0131l\u0131; bu, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi %4,92 seviyesinin 65 baz puan \u00fczerinde. Bu durum, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndemi geride b\u0131rakmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi bir \u201crisk primi\u201d (ek belirsizlik i\u00e7in talep edilen ilave getiri) fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 piyasa tedirginli\u011finin ard\u0131ndan, zloti jeopolitik \u015foklardan toparlanabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n geriden geldi\u011fi ve bu faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n zamanla daralabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu nedenle Polonya tahvil faizlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak, \u00f6rne\u011fin faiz oran\u0131 swaplar\u0131 (sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) veya tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 sa\u011flayan kontratlar) \u00fczerinden, g\u00f6rece de\u011fer (benzer varl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda fiyat\/getiri fark\u0131ndan yararlanma) stratejisi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NBP faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit: s\u00fcrpriz yok, as\u0131l risk Glapi\u0144ski\u2019nin tonu. EUR\/PLN 4,22\u2019ye inerken tahvilde %5,57 ile 65 bp risk primi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; piyasa 2026\u2019ya dek de\u011fi\u015fim beklemiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46391\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}