USD\/JPY, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 156,30 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,05 geriledi. Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylemleriyle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u00f6viz yetkilisi Atsushi Mimura, yetkililerin spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli, fiyat\u0131 zorlayan) hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 yan\u0131t vermeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu ve piyasalar\u0131 izlediklerini s\u00f6yledi; belirli seviyeler vermedi ve m\u00fcdahaleyi do\u011frulamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelen son uyar\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 spek\u00fclasyona kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. USD\/JPY\u2019de son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan sert dalgalanmalar, piyasada \u201cresmi ad\u0131m\u201d olarak yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, bir\u00e7ok \u00fcyenin ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun s\u00fcrmesi ve enflasyonu ikinci tur (maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve genel fiyatlara yeniden yans\u0131mas\u0131) etkilerle beslemesi halinde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in alan g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler de \u201creel faiz\u201din (nominal faiz eksi enflasyon) belirgin \u015fekilde negatif kalmas\u0131na yak\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale edilmesini destekledi; bu da haziranda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi ABD verilerine kay\u0131yor. Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n (Nonfarm Payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki toplam istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) 60 bin gelmesi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ayr\u0131ca haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (Initial Jobless Claims: i\u015fsizlik \u00f6dene\u011fi i\u00e7in ilk kez ba\u015fvuranlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi, 97,90 civar\u0131nda iki ay\u0131n dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in daha \u201cgev\u015fek\u201d bir duru\u015f (faizleri daha erken indirmeye daha yak\u0131n politika) sergileyebilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin, yetkilileri rahats\u0131z eden seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda gergin bir zemin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Temel g\u00fc\u00e7, ABD faizlerinin Japonya\u2019dan 5 puandan fazla y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan b\u00fcy\u00fck farktan geliyor. Bu temel bask\u0131, s\u00fcrekli m\u00fcdahale tehdidiyle do\u011frudan \u00e7arp\u0131\u015f\u0131yor ve opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen dalgalanma d\u00fczeyi) y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te parite 158\u2019e yakla\u015f\u0131rken gelen yetkili uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. \u015eimdi daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerdeyiz; bu nedenle risk daha somut. Bu y\u0131l yetkililerin zaten ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki benzer hamlelere bak\u0131l\u0131rsa (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2024\u2019te birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilen yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon yen), olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale USD\/JPY\u2019de 5-7 yenlik ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
BoJ, 2025 toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda i\u015faret edildi\u011fi gibi faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u015flad\u0131; ancak yava\u015f tempo ABD ile fark\u0131 kapatmaya yetmedi. Bu da m\u00fcdahalenin tek ba\u015f\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici bir \u201ctamir\u201d oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri d\u00f6viz kuru gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemcileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, 155 gibi \u00f6nemli destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: \u015fu anki kura g\u00f6re k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) yen al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satman\u0131n (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put almak yerine ters pozisyon) bir strateji olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir; yani temel yukar\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n yeniden devreye girece\u011fine oynan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz d\u00f6nemden farkl\u0131 olarak, 2026 verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD enflasyonu %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olurken ve istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131nda faiz indirmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu da USD\/JPY\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fok olmadan zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131nda, ani hareket riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlara bak\u0131labilir. K\u0131sa vadeli \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almak, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir; ancak y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k bunu pahal\u0131 hale getirir. Alternatif olarak \u201cput spread\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ama kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar) maliyeti azalt\u0131r ve risk\/\u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fc daha net hale getirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 156,30\u2019da yatay; Japon yetkililer spek\u00fclasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u201chaz\u0131r\u0131z\u201d diyerek m\u00fcdahale riskini canl\u0131 tutuyor. BoJ tutanaklar\u0131 olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret. Odak ABD istihdam verileri, DXY zay\u0131f. Oynakl\u0131k ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46380\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}