BNY\u2019den Geoff Yu, Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da artan b\u00fct\u00e7e bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lanman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fck) b\u00f6lgesel d\u00f6viz hareketlerinin ve **carry trade** i\u015flemlerinin (y\u00fcksek faizli para birimini al\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimini satma stratejisi) ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Yu\u2019ya g\u00f6re b\u00f6lgede hi\u00e7bir merkez bankas\u0131 faizi art\u0131rmaya yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; enflasyon beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan as\u0131l riskin k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat \u015foklar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok maliye politikas\u0131ndan (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, harcama ve vergi kararlar\u0131) kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Romanya\u2019n\u0131n en sert bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fct\u00e7eye dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde **ikiz a\u00e7\u0131k** (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 + cari a\u00e7\u0131k) her biri GSYH\u2019nin (ekonominin toplam b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) yakla\u015f\u0131k %8\u2019i seviyesine yak\u0131nd\u0131; buna ek olarak **d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel faiz** (faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hali) dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Polonya ve Macaristan da b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesinde GSYH\u2019nin \u201cy\u00fcksek tek haneli\u201d y\u00fczdelerine do\u011fru gidiyor. Ancak son iki y\u0131lda **cari denge** (\u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve gelir-gider dengesi) trendleri daha iyi. Finansman\u0131 destekleyen unsurlar olarak **do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m (FDI)** (yabanc\u0131 \u015firketlerin \u00fclkeye kal\u0131c\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131) ve **cari transferler** (hibe, AB fonlar\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z para giri\u015fleri gibi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Macaristan i\u00e7in se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 cari transferlere \u00f6zellikle vurgu yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yu, d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 etkenler nedeniyle ortak k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lgede b\u00fct\u00e7e gidi\u015fatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131; bunun da **getiri e\u011frilerine** (farkl\u0131 vadelerde tahvil faizlerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu yap\u0131), d\u00f6viz ak\u0131mlar\u0131na ve d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131nda Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz mali ayr\u0131\u015fma, i\u015flem stratejilerimizde ana tema olmaya devam ediyor. B\u00f6lge merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz; bu da ayarlaman\u0131n y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc para birimlerinin ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Romanya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e ve d\u0131\u015f denge bozukluklar\u0131 en net i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 sunuyor. 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde zaten GSYH\u2019nin %8\u2019ine yakla\u015fan ikiz a\u00e7\u0131kta belirgin bir iyile\u015fme yok; 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc veriler **konsolide b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n** (merkezi y\u00f6netim ve ilgili kamu hesaplar\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131) %7,8 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Romanya leyi (RON) en k\u0131r\u0131lgan para birimi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kuru y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in **d\u00f6viz rezervi** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n elindeki yabanc\u0131 para varl\u0131klar\u0131) kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve rezervlerin ocaktan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 milyar euro azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zararla (\u00f6denen prim kadar) daha fazla ley zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na oynayabilmek i\u00e7in **EUR\/RON al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan euro alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Paritedeki **z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) bu y\u0131l %8\u2019den %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasadaki kayg\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu strateji, sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunarken olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Polonya ve Macaristan daha dengeli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm veriyor; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da not etti\u011fimiz \u00fczere d\u0131\u015f dengeleri daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Polonya\u2019n\u0131n cari fazla rakam\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi boyunca korundu. G\u00fcncel FDI verileri ise Macaristan\u2019\u0131n elektrikli ara\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne 1,5 milyar euro daha yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, Polonya zlotisini (PLN) ve Macar forintini (HUF) g\u00f6rece daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 i\u015flemeye en do\u011frudan yakla\u015f\u0131m, **nispi de\u011fer** (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 birbirine g\u00f6re de\u011ferlendiren) pozisyonlar\u0131d\u0131r: \u00f6rne\u011fin **forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri** (bug\u00fcnden belirlenen kurla ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) \u00fczerinden PLN\/RON veya HUF\/RON\u2019da uzun pozisyon almak. B\u00f6ylece euro veya dolar\u0131n genel hareketlerinden ziyade Romanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6zel mali zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedeflenir. Romanya ile Polonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana 60 **baz puan** (y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 60 baz puan = %0,60) a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; bu da piyasan\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
CEE\u2019de yeni hik\u00e2ye: faiz de\u011fil b\u00fct\u00e7e konu\u015fuyor. BNY\u2019den Yu\u2019ya g\u00f6re artan mali bask\u0131 FX ve carry trade\u2019i s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor; Romanya ikiz a\u00e7\u0131k ve rezerv erimesiyle en k\u0131r\u0131lgan. EUR\/RON call ve PLN\/HUF-RON long \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46371\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}