USD\/CHF, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,15 d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,7775 civar\u0131na indi ve 0,7800 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Hareket, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 0,1% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 97,90 civar\u0131na geriledi. DXY, dolar\u0131n alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 genel seyrini g\u00f6steren endekstir. Gerileme, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki diplomasi giri\u015fimlerine artan odaklanmay\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
Al Arabiya\u2019n\u0131n karde\u015f kanal\u0131 Al-Hadath, X\u2019te yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131mda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yo\u011fun temaslar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kademeli olarak yeniden a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n (\u00f6zellikle petrol ve do\u011falgaz) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019siyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 stratejik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Payla\u015f\u0131mda, bo\u011fazda mahsur kalan gemiler i\u00e7in saatler i\u00e7inde ilerleme olabilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmesiyle dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) talebi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyon beklentilerindeki bask\u0131 da hafifledi. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 izleyece\u011fi beklentisini destekleyen unsurlar\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken piyasalar \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair yeni sinyal ar\u0131yor. Dikkatler \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini do\u011frudan etkiler. Jeopolitik gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi (risklerin azalmas\u0131) ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u00e7o\u011fu kez petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2015\u2019te JCPOA (\u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesi) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen ayda WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) vadeli i\u015flemleri %8\u2019den fazla gerilemi\u015fti. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, enerji maliyetlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ya da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynamak i\u00e7in petrol ETF\u2019lerinde \u201cput\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almay\u0131 veya vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde \u201cshort\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) a\u00e7may\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini azalt\u0131r ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini zay\u0131flat\u0131r; bu da Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini so\u011futur. Bu durum faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerine g\u00f6re (SOFR, ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizini baz alan g\u00f6sterge oran) ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinde Fed\u2019in 6 ay i\u00e7inde faiz indirece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k %20\u2019den %50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu beklentiye g\u00f6re pozisyon almak isteyenler SOFR veya Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu t\u00fcr s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF \u00f6zelinde, teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n daha bask\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l opsiyon verilerinde USD\/CHF i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k \u201crisk reversal\u201d (put ve call opsiyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki talep\/fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) -%0,6\u2019ya gerilemi\u015fti. Bu, \u201cput\u201dlar\u0131n \u201ccall\u201dlara (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) g\u00f6re daha pahal\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten yararlan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\/CHF\u2019de put opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, trendi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek veya tersine \u00e7evirebilecek \u00f6nemli bir risk unsurudur. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/CHF\u2019de 1 haftal\u0131k \u201cimplied volatility\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) genelde 2-3 puan artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. Bu da veri sonras\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc tahmin etmeden, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF 0,7800 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f ihtimali risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 petrol\/enflasyonu bask\u0131layabilir; Fed s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k beklentisi gev\u015fiyor. G\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46370"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46370\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}