Al-Hadath\u2019\u0131n X\u2019teki kaynaklara dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kademeli olarak yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yo\u011fun temaslar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bo\u011fazdan k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n (d\u00fcnya genelindeki toplam petrol ve gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n
Haberde, kademeli a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ablukay\u0131 (ge\u00e7i\u015flerin fiilen engellenmesi) gev\u015fetmeye y\u00f6nelik uzla\u015f\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki saatlerde bo\u011fazda mahsur kalan gemiler i\u00e7in hareketlilik olabilece\u011fi eklendi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan WTI ham petrol %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek 90 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY\u2014dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 97,90 civar\u0131na hafif indi.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,15 y\u00fckselerek 7.375 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasa hareketleri, haberler sonras\u0131 daha fazla risk alma e\u011filimine ge\u00e7i\u015f olarak yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cRisk-on\u201d ve \u201crisk-off\u201d, piyasalar\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemde ne kadar risk almak istedi\u011fini anlat\u0131r. Risk-on d\u00f6neminde genelde hisseler, bir\u00e7ok emtia (petrol, metal gibi), emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimleri ve kripto varl\u0131klar destek bulur. Risk-off d\u00f6neminde ise tahviller, alt\u0131n ve \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d para birimleri (belirsizlikte tercih edilen para birimleri) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n
Risk-on d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7lenen para birimleri: AUD (Avustralya dolar\u0131), CAD (Kanada dolar\u0131), NZD (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131), RUB (Rus rublesi) ve ZAR (G\u00fcney Afrika rand\u0131). Risk-off d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7lenen para birimleri: USD (ABD dolar\u0131), JPY (Japon yeni) ve CHF (\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131).<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine dair haberlerle, petrol fiyatlar\u0131na eklenen jeopolitik risk primi (siyasi\/askeri risk nedeniyle fiyata yans\u0131yan ek pay) h\u0131zla eriyor. WTI\u2019nin 90 dolar civar\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesini ilk tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 80\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimali var. 2025\u2019e bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, son gerilimler \u00f6ncesinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha dengeliydi; bu da fiyatlar\u0131n yeniden normale d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri veya ilgili ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir. B\u00f6yle bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 genelde beklenen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility\u2014piyasan\u0131n opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) h\u0131zla geriler; bu da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131ndan uzak olan) call opsiyonu (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanan opsiyon) sat\u0131p prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplama stratejisini cazip k\u0131labilir. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son verileri zaten bu \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel arz fazlas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu; bu a\u00e7\u0131lma bunu daha da art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemlerinin 7.375\u2019e h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi, \u201crisk-on\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131na net ge\u00e7i\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri \u00e7o\u011fu \u015firket ve t\u00fcketici i\u00e7in do\u011frudan olumlu. Bu rahatlama, son bir ayd\u0131r s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan dar fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan piyasay\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karacak bir tetikleyici olabilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX\u2014piyasada \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d diye bilinen, beklene oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endeks) 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na gerileyerek bu y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcvenini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d i\u015flemlerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bu durum risk-on ortam\u0131ndan faydalanan emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerini destekleyebilir. AUD ve CAD, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye daha yatk\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n beklentileri a\u015farak rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kan d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 (ihracat\u0131n ithalattan fazla olmas\u0131), AUD i\u00e7in olumlu bir zemin sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik e\u015fik: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kademeli a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in temaslar h\u0131zland\u0131. K\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019si riskten \u00e7\u0131karken WTI 90 dolara indi, DXY geriledi, S&P 500 \u201crisk-on\u201da d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}