EUR\/GBP 0,8620 civar\u0131nda destek buldu, ancak 0,8650\u2019nin \u00fczerine yeniden \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorland\u0131. Parite, \u0130ran\u2019la bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) iyile\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de se\u00e7menler, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de 136 yerel y\u00f6netim i\u00e7in oy kullan\u0131rken \u0130sko\u00e7ya ve Galler parlamentolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de se\u00e7im yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Sonucun \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi i\u00e7in olumsuz olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu durum siyasi belirsizli\u011fi ve kamu maliyesine (devletin gelir-gider dengesi) ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi ama\u00e7layan ABD bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerisine Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yan\u0131t vermesi bekleniyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) durumu netle\u015fmedi; bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin belirgin \u00fczerinde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Almanya Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri Mart\u2019ta %5 artt\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f, %1 beklentinin \u00fczerinde ve \u015eubat\u2019taki %1,4\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi Mart Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) daha sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma takvimi (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve likiditeyi azaltma plan\u0131) hakk\u0131nda daha fazla ipucu verebilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP\u2019de tan\u0131d\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm var: Parite \u015fu anda 0,8700 civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde de 0,8650\u2019nin alt\u0131nda benzer \u015fekilde bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu karars\u0131zl\u0131k, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici (piyasay\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde hareket ettirecek haber\/veri) bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) %5,8 civar\u0131nda. Bu seviye tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve piyasan\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de May\u0131s 2025 yerel se\u00e7imlerinde iktidardaki \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin ciddi kay\u0131p ya\u015famas\u0131, Sterlin\u2019de sert ama ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise dikkat, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) kal\u0131c\u0131 hizmet enflasyonu (\u00f6zellikle hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki inat\u00e7\u0131 art\u0131\u015f) ile m\u00fccadelede zorlanmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Son veride hizmet enflasyonu %5,9 geldi; bu durum faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi taraf\u0131nda da tablo benzer: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler kal\u0131c\u0131 bir destek yaratmakta zorlan\u0131yor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) %0,3 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, Almanya IFO \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 Endeksi (\u015firketlerin beklenti ve g\u00fcvenini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) beklenmedik \u015fekilde 91,5\u2019e geriledi. Bu, b\u00f6lgenin ana ekonomisinde g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller ECB\u2019yi zor durumda b\u0131rak\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Euro\u2019da sert al\u0131m yapmaya isteksiz.<\/p>\n
Fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 (belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelmesi) ve her iki para birimindeki belirsizlikler nedeniyle, spot pozisyon (kurun anl\u0131k fiyat\u0131ndan do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmek olabilir. Strangle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money; hemen k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7meyen) bir al\u0131m (call) ve bir sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonunun birlikte al\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ama\u00e7, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan, iki y\u00f6nden birinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma olursa (fiyat\u0131n banttan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 her iki ekonomiyi de zorluyor. Brent petrol\u00fc jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, hem \u0130ngiltere hem Euro B\u00f6lgesi daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve zay\u0131flayan t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu tablo, enerji maliyetlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar EUR\/GBP\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/GBP 0,8620\u2019de tutunup 0,8650\u2019yi a\u015famazken 0,8700 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, petrol riski ve \u0130ngiltere se\u00e7imleri belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d\u00fc, opsiyon strangle\u2019\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46365"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46365\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}