EUR\/USD, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde 1,1800\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden (iki haftadan uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviye) geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f al\u0131mlar\u0131yla destek buldu. Parite 1,1700\u2019lerin ortas\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,10 y\u00fckseldi. Hareketlerde belirleyici olan taraf ABD dolar\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD istihdam verisi sonras\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de zay\u0131f kald\u0131. ADP verisine g\u00f6re (\u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en rapor) nisan ay\u0131nda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 109 bin artt\u0131. \u00d6nceki ay verisi ise 61 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi (revizyon: a\u00e7\u0131klanan verinin sonradan d\u00fczeltilmesi).<\/p>\n
Fiyatlama, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilerleme s\u00f6ylentileriyle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Donald Trump, son 24 saatte g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ilerledi\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fma istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Axios ise iki ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n tek sayfal\u0131k bir \u201cmutabakat zapt\u0131\u201dna (taraflar\u0131n niyet ve \u00e7er\u00e7evesini ortaya koyan \u00f6n anla\u015fma metni) yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Ancak CME Group\u2019un CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131na bakarak Fed faiz beklentisini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 konusundaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu t\u00fcr riskler zaman zaman dolara destek verebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Alman Fabrika Sipari\u015fleri, Fransa D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi, ABD Challenger \u0130\u015ften \u00c7\u0131karma verisi (i\u015fverenlerin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 planl\u0131 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma say\u0131lar\u0131) ve ABD haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek. Ard\u0131ndan odak, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek yeni geli\u015fmelere kayacak.<\/p>\n
O d\u00f6nemde EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) bu gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yordu; 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019dan %8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr s\u0131\u00e7ramalar, piyasada iki olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7tan birine g\u00f6re sert hareket beklendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. CME FedWatch, 2025 sonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyordu; jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine ekonomik verilerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD NFP verisi \u00f6ncesinde, her iki y\u00f6ne de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket ihtimaline g\u00f6re konumlanmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu. \u201cStraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 vadeye sahip bir al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) ile bir sat\u0131m opsiyonunu (put) birlikte almak; iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler) bu yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in uygundu. Bu yap\u0131, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fip dolar\u0131n sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde de, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisiyle dolar\u0131n h\u0131zla toparlanmas\u0131 halinde de kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klanan NFP verisi 210 binin \u00fczerinde gelerek beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131; \u0130ran m\u00fczakereleri de sonraki haftalarda t\u0131kand\u0131. Bu kombinasyon, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ve EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1600\u2019e do\u011fru geri d\u00f6nmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Oynakl\u0131\u011fa straddle ile pozisyon alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden Fed politikas\u0131na d\u00f6nerken ya\u015fanan bu sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayabilirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,18\u2019den gev\u015fedi; Asya\u2019da dip al\u0131mlar\u0131yla 1,17 ortas\u0131nda tutundu. Dolar, zay\u0131f ADP ve Fed beklentilerindeki yumu\u015famayla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. \u0130ran ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; g\u00f6zler NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46352\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}