WTI, ABD ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in referans fiyat (benchmark), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 93,25 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 93,50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu hareket, \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131n sona erdirilmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir anla\u015fma umudunu izledi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in \u00f6n haz\u0131rl\u0131k niteli\u011finde bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, son 24 saatte \u0130ran\u2019la \u201c\u00e7ok iyi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler\u201d yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve Tahran\u2019dan yan\u0131t i\u00e7in bir son tarih olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisi de fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bo\u011faz, petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f hatt\u0131; yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, arz ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fczenli olmas\u0131n\u0131 destekler.<\/p>\n
ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 (depolardaki petrol miktar\u0131), Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) haftal\u0131k raporuna g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam etti. 1 May\u0131s\u2019ta biten haftada stoklar 2,314 milyon varil azald\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki hafta 6,233 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasa beklentisi 2,8 milyon varil azal\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs, k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n son sekiz y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Banka ayr\u0131ca rezervlerde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir azalma ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 arz oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn \u015fu anda 102 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle piyasa gergin. Yani bir yanda s\u0131k\u0131 arz ko\u015fullar\u0131, di\u011fer yanda Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde deniz g\u00fcvenli\u011fine (gemilerin g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fi) ili\u015fkin diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme s\u00f6ylentileri dengeleniyor. Bu durum, temel g\u00f6stergeler (arz-talep, stoklar) bir y\u00f6ne i\u015faret ederken, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskinin ba\u015fka bir y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekti\u011fi zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar), \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda her iki y\u00f6ne de sert ve ani fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l benzer bir durum g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. May\u0131s 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda fiyatlar k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 93,50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmi\u015fti. Bu geri \u00e7ekilme, stok verileri piyasan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken bile, tamamen ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umudundan kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n bu olay\u0131 hat\u0131rlamas\u0131, olumlu jeopolitik haberlerin agresif fakat ge\u00e7ici olabilecek bir sat\u0131\u015f getirebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine y\u00f6nelik temel gerek\u00e7e h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; hatta ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. 5 May\u0131s 2026 tarihli en son EIA verisi, beklenti d\u0131\u015f\u0131 3,1 milyon varillik ham petrol stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. OPEC+ (OPEC \u00fclkeleri ve Rusya gibi ortaklar\u0131) bu \u00e7eyrekteki raporlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %15 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k, siyasi s\u00f6ylentilerle olu\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fini ve al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan strateji, beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) opsiyonlarla y\u00f6netmek. Al\u0131m opsiyonu (call, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, temel dinamiklerin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) tutmak ise olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f haberine ba\u011fl\u0131 ani fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge, zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flayabilir. Piyasan\u0131n, kritik derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fcresel stok seviyelerini g\u00f6rmezden gelen k\u0131sa vadeli spek\u00fclat\u00f6rleri cezaland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde g\u00f6zler diplomasiyle stok s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi: WTI 93,25 dolara gerilerken ABD\u2011\u0130ran anla\u015fma umudu ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz beklentisi bask\u0131 kurdu; buna kar\u015f\u0131n EIA d\u00fc\u015fen stoklar ve Goldman\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rezerv uyar\u0131s\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46341"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46341\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}